Amara's law

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Amara's law is a maxim stating:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

It was originally formulated by Roy Amara of the Institute for the Future. However, it is sometimes mistakenly called Saffo's law or Clarke's law.

It echoes a quote by Joseph Licklider that says:

A modern maxim says: People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five or ten years,

Which occurs in a footnote on p. 17 of Joseph Licklider, Libraries of the Future, MIT Press, 1965.

See also

• Adages named after people

 

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