Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, 2006

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The Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, in Dunfermline and western Fife, Scotland, was held on February 9, 2006 following the death of sitting Labour MP Rachel Squire on January 6. The by-election was the first seat to change hands in the 2005 Parliament when Willie Rennie won the seat for the Liberal Democrats, a gain from Labour, by 1,800 votes. The BBC reported a swing from Labour to the Liberal Democrats of 16.24%.[link]

It was the first time Labour had lost a seat at a Westminster by-election in Scotland since the Scottish National Party won the Glasgow Govan by-election 1988, and the first time Labour has ever lost to the Liberal Democrats, or their precedessors the Liberal Party, in a Scottish Westminster by-election. The by-election took place in the middle of a leadership election in the Liberal Democrats and the party was perceived in the media to be declining in the polls as a result of negative publicity surrounding the resignation of former leader Charles Kennedy and revelations about the private lives of Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes.

The constituency of Dunfermline and West Fife was first created for the United Kingdom Parliament at the 2005 UK General Election and saw a comfortable Labour win at that election. It was the second Westminster by-election in a Scottish constituency since the 2005 UK general election. In the Livingston by-election, 2005, Labour retained the seat with the Scottish National Party second but 2,680 votes behind. The Livingston constituency lies just across the Firth of Forth from the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency.

Contents

1 Campaign
2 Implications (on UK and Scottish elections)
3 Result
4 Previous election
5 Notional election results for 2001
6 Last election in the Scottish Parliament constituencies

6.1 Dunfermline West
6.2 Dunfermline East

7 Last elections to Fife Council
8 See also
9 External links

Campaign

The Courier [reported on January 23] that leaked minutes of a meeting on January 11 at Westminster revealed that "senior Scottish Liberal Democrats do not believe their party has any chance of winning the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election", and that "their aim is to beat the SNP rather than topple Labour". This suggestion was backed up on January 27 by a poll in the Daily Telegraph that put the Lib Dems at 13% UK-wide (down 10% on Election 2005), their worst position since the 2001 general election.

The Sunday Herald [reported on 29 January] that they had "evidence of a high-level “fix” to select (the Labour) candidate", because "party bosses sent out a leaflet on behalf of Catherine Stihler’s campaign hours before she was selected to fight the seat." This story followed earlier reports of a similar row over the selection of the Conservative and Unionist candidate: [Fife Tory leader Stuart Randall’s claim that he was left out of the shortlist for being "far too old and middle-aged to fit the bill]". Randall, who stood as Conservative candidate against Gordon Brown in Dunfermline East at the 1997 and 2001 UK general elections and fought Dunfermline East constituency at the 2003 Scottish Parliament general election, was born in 1962. Local Conservative activists were reported to be furious that such a high-profile local figure was left off the shortlist of candidates for the by-election.

The byelection electorate for the constituency was 72,225, a slight increase (of 2.04%) on the general election in May 2005.

Implications (on UK and Scottish elections)

The constituency neighbours Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, the seat of Gordon Brown, current Chancellor of the Exchequer and widely seen as the main contender to succeed Tony Blair as Leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister when the latter steps down in the life of the current Parliament. Brown actually lives in the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency. The constituency is also near to North East Fife, the constituency of Sir Menzies Campbell, leader of the Liberal Democrat party (only a leadership contender at the time). Prior to the election it was speculated that a poor showing for either party in the vicinity of Brown and/or Campbell's political bases could impact upon their chances of winning their respective parties' leaderships.

The result of this Westminster by-election can be seen as a litmus test of the parties' standing prior to the Scottish Parliament general election, 2007. The results of all by-elections in Scotland have been particularly highly valued by psephologists and political commentators since the demise of the last regular, monthly Scottish voting-intention poll (by The Herald and Taylor Nelson Sofres System 3) at the end of 2003. The result was also notable as it came at a time when Labour's national opinion poll ratings were very high.[link]

Immediately after the election the Liberal Democrats claimed that the results showed they were the challengers to the Labour Party and that the Conservatives had failed their first electoral test under their new leader.

Result

Previous election

Notional election results for 2001

This constituency did not exist in 2001, so the "notional" figures below were calculated by professional psephologists to give an indication of how the results may have looked had the constituency existed in 2001. These calculations were broadly accepted by major media outlets and the political parties, although there was a margin of error. The errors were larger in rural constituencies, which does not apply in this case, so it is quite likely that the following figures are a fair guesstimate.

Last election in the Scottish Parliament constituencies

Dunfermline West

Dunfermline West is the Scottish Parliament constituency which most closely corresponds to the Westminster seat. It lies entirely within the boundaries of the Westminster constituency, but is smaller:

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Dunfermline East

There are also significant parts of Dunfermline East (Scottish Parliament constituency) in the Westminster seat:

|- style="background-color:#F6F6F6" ! style="background-color: " | | colspan="2" | hold | align="right" | Swing | align="right" | +1.1 || |-

Last elections to Fife Council

The Labour Party holds more than half of the local government wards in the Dunfermline and West Fife constituency. In the latest Fife Council local elections, 2003, Labour won twelve wards in the constituency, the Liberal Democrats won five wards, the Scottish National Party won one ward, and the Conservative and Unionist Party won no wards:

Kincardine, Culross and Low Valleyfield: Independent Gain from Labour
Blairhall, High Valleyfield and Torryburn: Labour Hold
Oakley Saline and Steelend: Labour Hold
Cairneyhill, Carnock and Milesmark: Labour Hold
Crossford and Dunfermline Central: Lib Dem Hold
Baldridgeburn: Labour Hold
Wellwood and Headwell: Labour Hold
Townhill and Bellyeoman: Independent Campaign for Local Hospital Services Gain from Labour
Garvock and Carnegie: Lib Dem Hold
Halbeath, Hill of Beath and Kingseat: Labour Hold
Woodmill: Labour Hold
Linburn: Labour Hold
Brucefield and Nethertown: Lib Dem Hold
Pitcorthie: Lib Dem Hold
Limekilns and Pitreavie: Lib Dem Gain from Labour
Rosyth West: Labour Hold
Rosyth East: Labour Hold
Inverkeithing West and Rosyth South: SNP Hold
Inverkeithing East and North Queensferry: Labour Gain from SNP
Crossgates and Moss-side: Labour Hold

There have been no local by-elections in any of these wards since 2003. There have been three local by-elections in other wards in Fife since 2003:

Auchtertool and Burntisland East by-election, 2005: SNP Gain from Independent, with swing against Independent, to SNP, of 16.3% (this local by-election was held on the same day as the Livingston by-election, 2005 and the Cathcart by-election, 2005)
Cupar North by-election, 2004: LibDem Hold, with swing against LibDem, to Independent, of 25%
Lumphinnans and Lochgelly South by-election, 2004: Labour Hold, with swing against Labour, to SNP, of 17% (this ward borders Dunfermline and West Fife)

External links

["Labour MP dies after long illness"] from BBC News

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