Ensemble forecasting

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Ensemble forecasting is a method used by modern operational forecast centers to account for uncertainties and errors in the forecasting system which are crucial for the prediction errors due to the chaotic nature of the atmospheric dynamics (sensitive dependency on initial conditions). Many different models are created in parallel with slightly different initial conditions or configurations. These models are then combined to produce a forecast that can be fully probabilistic or derive some deterministic products such as the ensemble mean.

See also: chaos theory

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