Ex-Cubs Factor

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The Ex-Cubs Factor is a seemingly spurious correlation that is essentially a corollary to the Curse of the Billy Goat. It asserts that since the last appearance by the Chicago Cubs in the 1945 World Series, any baseball team headed into the post-season tournament with three or more former Cubs on its roster has "a critical mass of Cubness" and a strong likelihood of failure.

The theory was developed during the early 1980s by a fan named Ron Berler. His findings were cited by Chicago Tribune columnist and fellow Cubs fan Mike Royko, just prior to the 1990 World Series. Royko predicted (seemingly in jest) that the heavily-favored Oakland Athletics were "doomed" to lose the Series to the Cincinnati Reds. When that prediction came true in stunning fashion (the Reds won in a four game sweep), Royko repeated the story (seemingly a little stunned himself), and in subsequent years referred to it just before every post-season series in which it was relevant, its apparent accuracy repeatedly being borne out.

Prior to Royko's death in 1997, the theory had remained intact. Its only exception had been the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates, who had defeated the New York Yankees in a sudden-victory finish in Game 7. At that time, the Ex-Cubs Factor theory was unknown.

By the time of the 2001 World Series, the theory was well-known among baseball fans. After the Arizona Diamondbacks won the first two games at home, the New York Yankees won the next three at Yankee Stadium in dramatic fashion. That momentum shift, along with the sympathy many fans felt for New York City following the September 11, 2001 attacks, topped off by the three ex-Cubs on the Arizona roster, seemed to stack up against the D-backs. But Arizona won Game 6 in a lopsided score, and then won Game 7 in a come-from-behind finish, scoring a pair of runs in the ninth inning to win the Series. In fact, two of the three former Cubs (the third being Mike Morgan) played prominent roles in that ninth inning, Mark Grace getting a leadoff single and Luis Gonzalez driving in the winning run with a single.

The Arizona victory seemingly broke this "curse", and it has generated rather less interest since then. It is perhaps noteworthy, though, that both the Pirates of 1960 and the Diamondbacks of 2001 fell into a serious slump in the years following their victories, as if suffering some consequence for having defied this "curse".

In a curious parallel, the "inside baseball" technique that defeated the Yankees and their star relief pitcher Mariano Rivera in Game 7 would be nearly repeated in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS between the other "cursed" team, the Boston Red Sox and their arch-rivals, the New York Yankees. That inning was the start of turning that series around, and ultimately ending the Curse of the Bambino.

Following the logic of the other "curses", then, the Curse of the Billy Goat is destined to be broken in a World Series in which the Chicago Cubs would defeat the New York Yankees. The Cubs came close in 2003, when they came within five outs of advancing to the World Series before blowing a late lead to the Florida Marlins in Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS.

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