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New York gubernatorial election, 2006

Encyclopedia : N : NE : NEW : New York gubernatorial election, 2006

Elections in New York
Gubernatorial Elections:
1882,1926-1998 · 2002
2006
Presidential Elections:
1996 · 2000 · 2004
United States Senate Elections:
2000 · 2006
Attorney General Elections:
1978-2002
New York City Mayoral Elections:
1929-2001 2005
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 This article or section contains information about an upcoming or ongoing election.
Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds.
The New York gubernatorial election of 2006 will be a race for the state governorship. Whoever is elected on November 7, 2006 will serve between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2010 and will be up for reelection in 2010. The new governor will succeed Governor George Pataki, the three-term incumbent, who will not run for a fourth term. Many political analysts point to weak poll-numbers for a gubernatorial run, as well as Governor Pataki's interest in seeking the Republican nomination in the 2008 presidential election.

Barring dramatic changes in the electoral landscape, New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, a popular politician in the state, is the favorite for both the Democratic nomination, and the general election. Some political analysts have dubbed the election the "Obama of 2006", in reference to the Illinois Senate race of 2004 in which Democratic candidate Barack Obama won an open seat with 70% of the vote.

Contents

Background

Currently, Eliot Spitzer and Thomas Suozzi are the only announced Democratic candidates for the gubernatorial race, although Spitzer is currently the overwhelming favorite. As New York State Attorney General, Spitzer made a name for himself nationally having won convictions, plea deals, and settlements against large corporations that had evaded federal regulators. He formally announced his candidacy for the New York Democratic nomination shortly after the end of the 2004 elections on December 7, 2004.

The early announcement and buzz about Spitzer's candidacy is believed to have dissuaded two rumored Democratic contenders, Andrew Cuomo and Chuck Schumer, from contesting him in a contest; instead, Andrew Cuomo is now running for the attorney general seat that Spitzer will vacate in 2006 and Schumer will remain in the U.S. Senate. Taking advantage of New York state's electoral fusion system, that allows for a candidate to run on multiple party's ballot lines, Spitzer gained the early nomination of the left-leaning Working Families Party in January 22, 2005. The deal effectively consolidates Eliot Spitzer's frontrunner status, while cementing the WFP's reputation as a kingmaker third-party in New York.

The main obstacle Spitzer faces may be his own record as attorney general; the main source of Spitzer's electoral appeal have been high profile prosecutions of corporate executives in cases of fraud and labor abuses, taking advantage of the unique powers of the New York Attorney General's office. This has gained him the praise and endorsements of several labor unions active in the state, including SEIU, UNITE HERE, and the Teamsters. Simultaneously, it has gained criticism from those sympathetic to the interests of business, including the influential Editorial section of The Wall Street Journal. Complicating matters further, some note Spitzer's own personal contradictions: while Andy Stern of SEIU has called Spitzer a "class hero", Spitzer himself comes from an affluent background. It has led some to suggest that Spitzer pursued cases as Attorney General for ulterior motives, or just mere vanity.

An uncertainty in the early part of the race was the status of Governor George Pataki. While Eliot Spitzer's gubernatorial ambitions were well known for some time before a public announcement, Pataki remained silent about a run for re-election while rumors of his presidential bid were made. After early polling for the gubernatorial election suggested Pataki would lose in a gubernatorial matchup against Spitzer as well as trips to Iowa and New Hampshire - home to the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary and a first stop in a 2008 presidential run) - Pataki announced he would not seek the 2006 gubernatorial nomination and would not seek another term.

The perceived indecision of Pataki on the issue of a fourth run for governor put Republican leaders and insiders into a bind, of not wanting to embarrass Pataki or state Republican leadership by appearing to break ranks, but still facing the prospect of the Spitzer campaign amassing a considerable strength and war chest in the early running. Consequently, the GOP has appeared divided, with rumors of several Republicans either seeking or being approached about running.

The first announced Republican candidate was Randy Daniels, the Secretary of State appointed by Governor Pataki in 2001. His political supporters include New York Conservative Party Chairman Michael Long. His association with the Conservative Party (who split their ticket with the Republicans in the 2004 senatorial election), as well as his past association with the Democratic administration of New York City mayor David Dinkins, however, has caused his Republican bona fides to be considered questionable by many in the party, most notably state GOP Chairman Stephen J. Minarik III. [link]

No Republican has won statewide office in New York without Conservative Party backing since the late Senator Jacob Javits in 1974.

Considered a possibility since her decision not to seek re-election for District Attorney of Westchester County in 2005, Jeanine Pirro was rumored for a run at governor, but she chose to run for U.S. Senator - against Hillary Clinton - instead, then withdrew to run for attorney general.

On August 19, 2005, former Massachusetts Governor William Weld made official his bid for the Republican line. If elected, Weld would become only the second person in history to serve as Governor of two different states, after Sam Houston.

However, Weld has been dogged by a scandal involving his tenure as CEO of Decker College, a trade school in Kentucky. After Weld resigned as CEO in October, 2005, Decker College filed for bankruptcy and was charged with several counts of federal fraud. While Weld told reporters that he had been told he was not a target of the probe, Marisa Ford, chief of the criminal division for the US Attorney’s office in Louisville, disputed that claim, saying, “Nobody in this office advised Mr. Weld’s attorney that he is not a target.” [link].

Weld has also been beset by claims that he has flip-flopped on gay marriage in an attempt to win the Conservative Party endorsement. Weld told the Conservative Party in February, 2006, that he would veto any bill to legalize gay marriage, leading Conservative Party chair Michael Long to say, "He has evidently - clearly - moved on the issue" [link]. Previously, Weld had called a court decision to legalize gay marriage "a thunderbolt correctly heard," had performed the homily at his chief-of-staff's gay wedding, and had written a letter to 200 legislators urging them to legalize gay marriage.

In response to the perceived turnaround, gay activist Arline Isaacson says, Weld “never, ever, ever limited that support [of gay marriage] in any of his remarks to Massachusetts. He's been so good on this, on our right to same-sex marriage, that I want to make sure he's not being misunderstood, because he has been fabulously supportive of us, and there was never any equivocation in the last few years about how he views same-sex [marriage"].

Early in the race, a prominent figure was billionaire Tom Golisano, who ran three consecutive campaigns as an Independence Party candidate. The New York Times reports that many New York State Republican Party insiders are considering nominating Golisano. The perceived advantages would be unifying both the Independence and Republican Party lines, and that Golisano could devote his personal wealth toward an entirely self-financed campaign, freeing state and federal party resources for other campaigns. Perceived disadvantages include the bitter recriminations between Golisano and Pataki from three consecutive campaigns: Pataki's supporters long viewed Golisano as a spoiler candidate, while Golisano's supporters accused Pataki of attempting to "steal" the Independence Party's nomination in the 2002 campaign. On October 7, 2005, Republican sources reported to the New York Sun Golisano plans to switch to the Republican line for governor [link]. On January 31, 2006, Golisano announed he would not run for governor, citing "personal and professional reasons". [link]

A December 31, 2005 Associated Press story hinted that another prominent billionaire, developer Donald Trump, might be considering a run for governor. State Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno had told reporters Thursday, December 29, 2005 that a "big-name" candidate was considering a run for governor as a Republican. The following day, he confirmed to an Albany, New York news channel he was referring to Trump. [link] But on January 3, 2006 Trump told the New York Post [link] that, while he was "honored" to have had his name floated for the job, he wasn't interested. Instead, he held out the possibility of endorsing Spitzer, whom he said has done "an amazing job" as attorney general.

On January 23, 2006, Spitzer selected State Senator David A. Paterson of Harlem as his running mate. [link] On February 14, John Faso launched a state-wide campaign ad announcing his candidacy for governor. On February 25, Tom Suozzi officially announced his candidacy for governor. [link] On March 3, Pat Manning announed he would not run for governor. [link] On March 13, both Eliot Spitzer and Tom Suozzi launched their first campaign ads. On April 10, Randy Daniels announced he was dropping out of the race.

On May 30, 2006, Spitzer and Paterson won the endoresement of the New York State Democratic party. [link] He still, however, must face Suozzi in the Democratic primary.

The late Spring nominations of John Faso by the Conservative Party and Weld by the Libertarian Party could be significant. As the Washington Post put it, "[n]ow it turns out whoever loses the GOP primary will stay in the race -- in a position likely to siphon votes from the Republican nominee." [link]

On June 5, Stephen J. Minarik, the chairman of the state Republican Party, and who had been Weld's most prominent backer, called on Weld to withdraw from the race in the interest of party unity. [link]

On June 6, Weld announced that he was dropping out of the governor's race and endorsing Faso. This followed reports that he was considering staying in the race and using his own money to fund his campaign.

Scheduled events

Potential candidates for governor

Announced

Not running

Ticket Designated by the 2006 Democratic State Convention

This is the ticket designated by the Democratic State Convention for 2006 and primaries have been scheduled in September to decide the party's nominees. Contested primary races are currently slated for governor and attorney general.

Announced

Not running

Ticket Designated by the 2006 Republican State Convention

This is the ticket designated by the Republican State Convention for 2006 and primaries have been scheduled in September to decide the party's nominees. Contested primary races are currently slated for governor, lieutenant governor and U.S. Senate.

Independence Party

Ticket Designated by the Independence Party State Convention

Ticket Designated by the Conservative Party Convention

Working Families Party

Ticket Designated by the Working Families Party Convention

Ticket designated by Green Party

Integrity Party

Ticket designated by the Integrity Party of New York State

[link]

  • John Clifton

Ticket designated by the Libertarian Party of New York

Former Candidates

Candidates for

Announced

Not running

Announced

Not Running

Opinion polling

Democratic Primary

Poll Source Date Spitzer Suozzi Undecided
[Qunnipiac] June 21, 2006 76% 13% 11%
[Qunnipiac] May 17, 2006 73% 13% 13%
[Marist College Poll] May 10, 2006 72% 12% 16%

General Election

Poll Source Date Democratic Republican
[Zogby International Poll] June 21, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 60.6% John Faso - 24.8%
[Zogby International Poll] June 21, 2006 Thomas Suozzi - 38.8% John Faso - 25.6%
[Quinnipiac] June 21, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 66% John Faso - 20%
[Quinnipiac] June 21, 2006 Thomas Suozzi - 41% John Faso - 23%
[Siena College Poll] June 19, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 67% John Faso - 21%
[Quinnipiac] May 17, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 67% John Faso - 16%
[Quinnipiac] May 17, 2006 Thomas Suozzi - 46% John Faso - 19%
[Marist College Poll] May 10, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 70% John Faso - 20%
[Siena College Poll] May 4, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 64% John Faso - 17%
[Strategic Vision] April 28, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 63% John Faso - 26%
[Quinnipiac] March 29, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 66% John Faso - 18%
[Strategic Vision] March 2, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 65% John Faso - 24%
[Marist College Poll] February 1, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 68% John Faso - 18%
[Zogby International Poll] January 26, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 54% John Faso - 17%
[Quinnipiac University Poll] January 19, 2006 Eliot Spitzer - 61% John Faso - 19%
[Quinnipiac University Poll] December 14, 2005 Eliot Spitzer - 64% John Faso - 14%
[Siena College Poll] October 12, 2005 Eliot Spitzer - 63% John Faso - 19%
[Quinnipiac University Poll] October 4, 2005 Eliot Spitzer - 60% John Faso - 14%
[Marist College Poll] September 30, 2005 Eliot Spitzer - 64% John Faso - 20%

See also

External links


Preceded by:
2002 		New York gubernatorial election
2006 		Followed by:
2010

 

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