Next United Kingdom general election
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Under the provisions of the Parliament Act 1911, the next United Kingdom general election must be held on or before 3 June, 2010. The previous election in the UK was the general election of 2005 held on 5 May, 2005.
The Queen may, at the request of the Prime Minister, order the dissolution of Parliament at any time within five years of the date of the previous general election, although typically at least four years elapse before a new election is considered. It is possible that it may be held on June 11, 2009 in order to coincide with elections to the European Parliament; combining elections dates is a common practice in the UK with the intention of reducing costs and increasing turnout. In England, the elections for County Councils are on a four-year cycle and are set for 2009. Local elections are also due in Northern Ireland in 2009, although this is subject to the Northern Ireland Review of Public Administration. This would be keeping in line both with the recent practice for four-year terms, and the convention of holding parliamentary elections on a Thursday.
The general election will take place in all constituencies of the United Kingdom, for seats in the House of Commons. There are currently 646 seats in the house, although the number of constituencies and their boundaries will change from those used at the previous general election, especially in England and Wales where a ten-year review is due for completion in 2007. Those constituencies recommended for the 2009/10 election are listed at Constituencies in the next United Kingdom general election.
Overview
The governing Labour Party will be looking to secure an unprecedented fourth consecutive term in office and to maintain its majority. The Conservative Party will seek to regain its dominant position in politics against losses in the 1990s, and to replace Labour as the governing party. The Liberal Democrats will hope to make gains from both sides.
Bookmakers have been taking bets almost since the counting of the votes in 2005. By January 2006 predictions suggested Labour would still be the largest party with a lead of around twenty seats over the Conservatives; the bookmakers' predictions are based on boundary changes and applying the uniform swing toward the Conservatives that was seen in the 2001 and 2005 elections. As is often the case, following the Local Elections held on May 4th 2006, odds make the Conservatives favourites to gain a majority in the next General Election. Given that elections are influenced mainly by events that happen after the last one, these predictions may be wholly inaccurate and will continue to be altered by immediate events.
Leadership of the parties
David Cameron became Conservative leader in December 2005. Sir Menzies Campbell replaced Charles Kennedy as leader of the Lib Dems in March 2006. Tony Blair has declared his intention to stand down before the next general election, with Chancellor Gordon Brown widely expected to replace him as leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister. Tony Blair has become increasingly weakened by the disquiet in his party and speculation about the time in which he will leave office.
All three main political parties will therefore go into the election with new leaders. This last happened in the United Kingdom general election, 1979, when James Callaghan, Margaret Thatcher and David Steel led the three main parties. That election saw the return of the Conservatives to government with a clear majority after five years of a troubled Labour government, while the Liberal vote collapsed.
As well as impacting on the popularity of each party at the polls, it can be said that the leadership of each party may have implications in the event of a hung parliament and the need to form a coalition government. Whereas Tony Blair was known to have courted the Lib Dems for possible coalition in the 1997 Parliament even though Labour had a clear majority, Gordon Brown is thought to be more resistant to co-operation with the Lib Dems; David Cameron has already attempted to "poach" voters and MPs from the Lib Dems, which has created the impression that his policies are in tune with theirs, but may put the Lib Dems off coalition for fear of being subsumed.
Since taking the position of leader of the Liberal Democrats, Sir Menzies Campbell has been subjected to some critisicm of his leadership role and lack of media presence, this factor in particular being of greater importance in modern political debate.
Other parties
Many seats will also be contested by other parties. Parties with representation at the previous general election at Westminster include the Democratic Unionist Party, Health Concern, Plaid Cymru, RESPECT The Unity Coalition, the Scottish National Party, Sinn Féin (who do not take their seats as they will not swear the Oath of Allegiance to the Queen), the Social Democratic and Labour Party, and the Ulster Unionist Party. There was one independent member of Parliament, Peter Law, elected in the 2005 General election, who died in April 2006. Given vocal groups of opposition within both of the main parties, it is possible that the number of independent MPs will increase as members are expelled or resign. In addition to Law, Dr. Richard Taylor was elected as the IKHH member of Parliament for Wyre Forest. It is unclear whether he will attempt to hold this seat for a third term.
Parties expected to contest the election that won no representatives at Westminster in 2005, but had seats in the devolved assemblies and European Parliament, include the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the United Kingdom Independence Party, the various national Green parties, and the Scottish Socialist Party.
See also List of political parties in the United Kingdom
Benchmarks
The following benchmarks have been calculated on 2005 boundaries and assume a uniform swing across the country.[[Citing sources citation needed]]
- Any swing to Labour since 2005: Increased Labour majority in Parliament
- Less than 2.35% swing to Conservative: Labour overall majority
- Between 2.35% and 4.65% swing to Conservative: Labour largest party in a hung parliament
- Between 4.65% and 6.34% swing to Conservative: Conservatives largest party in a hung parliament
- More than 6.34% swing to Conservative: Conservative overall majority.
Boundary changes in England, Wales and Northern Ireland
The Boundary Commission is required by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (as amended by the Boundary Commissions Act 1992) to conduct a general review of all the constituencies in England every eight to twelve years. The Commission completed their previous general review on 12 April 1995, and is currently undertaking the latest one, which must complete after 11 April 2003 and before 12 April 2007. The Commission’s recommendations throughout the review must by law be based on the numbers of electors on the electoral registers on that date.
After completion, its recommendations will be sent to the Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs who puts it before Parliament. If Parliament approves, the new constituencies will be used in the next General Election. The changes made will be the first major ones to Parliamentary constituencies since the 1997 General Election.
Constituencies in Wales are also reviewed every 8-12 years by the Boundary Commission for Wales, which has completed its latest review which was laid before Parliament on 14 December 2005. Scotland saw its large-scale review complete in 2004.
In Wales, the total number of seats is to remain at 40, although new seats have been recommended by radical redrawing of boundaries in Clwyd and Gwynedd; Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd could replace Caernarfon and Meirionnydd Nant Conwy respectively; Aberconwy could replace Conwy. Currently Welsh constituencies have on average 25,000 fewer people than their counterparts in England
The Northern Ireland Boundary Commission announced in 2006 that minor changes would take place across the province to its existing constituencies.
The current list of confirmed constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales is in Constituencies in the next United Kingdom general election.
One consequence of boundary reviews is the notional changing of representation of some constituencies where calculations of voting intentions suggest a party other than the victor at the last general election would have been successful had the boundaries been in place.
Notional changes in representation as a consequence of the current boundary reviews can be summarised as below:
- Croydon Central = Currently held by Conservatives but notionally held by Labour
- Ealing Central and Acton = Currently held by Labour but notionally held by Conservatives
- Enfield North = Currently held by Labour but notionally held by Conservatives
- Portsmouth North = Currently held by Labour but notionally held by Conservatives
- Rochester and Strood = Currently held by Labour but notionally held by Conservatives
- Selby and Ainsty = Currently held by Labour but notionally held by Conservatives
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey = Currently held by Labour but notionally held by Conservatives
- Solihull = Currently held by Liberal Democrats, notionally held by Conservatives
- Thanet South = Currently held by Labour but notionally held by Conservatives
- Wirral West = Currently held by Labour but notionally held by Conservatives
New and abolished constituencies
It is not always easy to clearly identify newly created constituencies or those abolished during the review process.
The following constituencies are amongst those which are regarded as being replaced during the most recent review process;
- Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath
- Blackpool North and Fleetwood
- Brent East
- Dwyfor Meirionnydd
- Eccles
- Kensington and Chelsea
- Knowsley North and Sefton East
- Lancaster and Wyre
- Normanton
- Rugby and Kenilworth
- Sheffield Hillsborough
- Tyne Bridge
- Vale of York
- Brent Central
- Broadland
- Central Devon
- Chelsea and Fulham
- Chippenham
- Filton and Bradley Stoke
- Gateshead
- Kenilworth and Southam
- Knowsley
- Meon Valley
- Mid Derbyshire
- Northamptonshire South
- Rugby
- Salford and Eccles
- Sefton Central
- St Austell and Newquay
- Sunderland Central
- Wentworth and Dearne
- Witham
- Wyre and Preston North
- York Outer
External links
- http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
Boundary changes
- [Boundary Commission for England]
- [Boundary Commission for Wales]
- [Comisiwn Ffiniau i Gymru (in Welsh)]
- [June 2006: Boundary changes make it more difficult for Labour to win an overall majority]
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