North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
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North Korea claims to possess nuclear weapons, and it is widely believed to have a substantial arsenal of chemical weapons (deliverable by artillery against South Korea). North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003 after not receiving the promised light water reactors which were going to be delivered by the United States of America in exchange for North Korea not developing their own power plants. During the "Six-party talks" North Korea agreed in principle to end its own nuclear program as part of a comprehensive package of measures to normalize relationships.
Nuclear weapons
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Background and the North Korean perspective
Korea has been a divided country since 1948. The Korean War, initiated by a North Korean invasion of the South, was fought from June 25, 1950 until a cease-fire was declared on July 27, 1953. However, since North Korea and South Korea have still not officially made peace, strictly speaking, this war has not yet ended.Tensions between North and South have run high on numerous occasions since 1953. The deployment of the U.S. Army's Second Infantry Division on the Korean peninsula and the American military presence at the Korean Demilitarized Zone are publicly regarded by North Korea as an occupying army. In several areas, the American and South Korean military operates in extremely close proximity to the North Korean border (and vice versa), sometimes adding to tension. Understanding the North Korean attitude to the presence of American troops in South Korea helps to contextualize occurrences such as the border clash in 1976, which has become known as the axe murder incident.
The U.S. has rejected recent North Korean calls for bilateral talks concerning a non-aggression pact, insisting that only six-party talks that also include the People's Republic of China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea are acceptable.
A document leaked in March 2001 showed that the U.S. Government was willing to use nuclear weapons against North Korea. North Korea argues that it is allowed to use nuclear reactors to generate the much needed power supply for the country.
Plutonium
Concern focuses around two reactors at Yongbyon, both of them small power stations using Magnox techniques. The smaller (5MWe) was completed in 1986 and has since produced possibly 8,000 spent fuel elements. Construction of the larger plant (50MWe) commenced in 1984 but in 2003 was still incomplete. This larger plant is based on the declassified blueprints of the Calder Hall power reactors used to produce plutonium for the UK nuclear weapons program. The smaller plant produces enough material to build one new bomb per year; if completed, the larger plant could produce enough for 10 each year [link].It has also been suggested that small amounts of plutonium could have been produced in a Russian-supplied IRT-2000 heavy-water moderated research reactor completed in 1967, but there are no recorded safeguards violations with respect to this plant.
On March 12, 1993, North Korea said that it planned to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and refused to allow inspectors access to its nuclear sites. By 1994, the United States believed that North Korea had enough reprocessed plutonium to produce about 10 bombs with the amount of plutonium increasing. Faced with diplomatic pressure and the threat of American military air strikes against the reactor, North Korea agreed to dismantle its plutonium program as part of the Agreed Framework in which South Korea and the United States would provide North Korea with light water reactors and fuel oil until those reactors could be completed. Because the light water reactors would require enriched uranium to be imported from outside North Korea, the amount of reactor fuel and waste could be more easily tracked, making it more difficult to divert nuclear waste to be reprocessed into plutonium. However, the United States never built the promised light water reactors and in late 2002, North Korea was forced to go back to using their old reactors.
Enriched uranium
With the abandonment of its plutonium program, North Korea began an enriched uranium program. Pakistan, through Abdul Qadeer Khan, supplied key technology and information to North Korea in exchange for missile technology around 1997, according to U.S. intelligence officials.This program was publicized in October 2002 when the United States asked North Korean officials about the program, [link]. It is worth noting that the added claim — "they acknowledged they had a secret nuclear weapons programme involving enriched uranium," — was never substantiated.
Although the Agreed Framework specifically prohibited then-existing plutonium programs, not uranium, the U.S. argued North Korea violated the "spirit" of the agreement. In December 2002, the United States terminated the 1994 Agreed Framework, suspending fuel oil shipments.
North Korea responded by announcing plans to reactivate a dormant nuclear fuel processing program and power plant north of Pyongyang. North Korea soon thereafter expelled U.N. inspectors and withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Diplomatic relations between the U.S. and North Korea
- Main article: U.S.-North Korea relations
Diplomatic efforts at resolving the North Korean situation are complicated by the different goals and interests of the nations of the region. While none of the parties desire a North Korea with nuclear weapons, Japan and South Korea are very concerned about North Korean counter strikes in case of military action against North Korea. The People's Republic of China and South Korea are also very worried about the economic and social consequences should this situation cause the North Korean government to collapse.
Chronology of events
- 1989 - Soviet control of communist governments throughout Europe begins to weaken and the Cold War comes to a close. As the USSR's power declines, North Korea loses the security guarantees and economic support that had sustained it for 45 years.
- Through satellite photos, the U.S. learns of new construction at a nuclear complex near the North Korean town of Yongbyon. U.S. intelligence analysts suspect that North Korea, which had signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1985 but had not yet allowed inspections of its nuclear facilities, is in the early stages of building an atomic bomb.
- In response, U.S. pursues a strategy in which North Korea's full compliance with the NPT would lead to progress on other diplomatic issues, such as the normalization of relations.
- 1992 - In May, for the first time, North Korea allows a team from the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), then headed by Hans Blix, to visit the facility at Yongbyon. Blix and the U.S. suspect that North Korea is secretly using its five-megawatt reactor and reprocessing facility at Yongbyon to turn spent fuel into weapons-grade plutonium. Before leaving, Blix arranges for fully equipped inspection teams to follow.
- The inspections do not go well. Over the next several months, the North Koreans repeatedly block inspectors from visiting two of Yongbyon's suspected nuclear waste sites and IAEA inspectors find evidence that the country is not revealing the full extent of its plutonium production.
- 1993 - In March, North Korea threatens to withdraw from the NPT. North Korea's announcement shocks the world. Facing heavy domestic pressure from Republicans who oppose negotiations with North Korea, President Bill Clinton appoints Robert Gallucci to start a new round of negotiations. After 89 days, North Korea announces it has suspended its withdrawal. (The NPT requires a 90-day notice before a country can withdraw.)
- In December, IAEA Director-General Blix announces that the agency can no longer provide "any meaningful assurances" that North Korea is not producing nuclear weapons.
- On October 12, 1994, the United States and North Korea signed the "Agreed Framework": North Korea agreed to freeze its plutonium production program in exchange for fuel oil, economic cooperation, and the construction of two modern light-water nuclear power plants. Eventually, North Korea's existing nuclear facilities were to be dismantled, and the spent reactor fuel taken out of the country. All of the operative provisions of the accord relate to freezing the North's plutonium program and make no reference to uranium enrichment. Pyongyang scrupulously observed these provisions until the Bush administration stopped the oil shipments in December 2002. The agreement does, however, reaffirm a 1991 agreement between North and South Korea that banned "uranium enrichment facilities," making no distinction between highly enriched uranium and low-enriched uranium. Pyongyang clearly did violate that accord by pursuing uranium-enrichment efforts (however limited they may turn out to have been) and thus, technically, violated the 1994 Agreed Framework as well. [link]
- By October 1997, the spent fuel rods were encased in steel containers, under IAEA inspection. [link]
- On August 31, 1998 North Korea launched a modified Taepodong-1 missile in a launch attempt of its Kwangmyŏngsŏng satellite. There is some uncertainty whether the satellite reached orbit.This missile flew over Japan causing the Japanese government to retract 1 billion in aid for two civilian light-water reactors. [link] [link]
- In October 2002 the United States confronted North Korea with the claim that North Korea was developing gas centrifuge technology to enrich uranium for "nuclear weapons", and threatened to terminate the Agreed Framework. According to the U.S., North Korea confirmed its uranium program; according to North Korea, it replied that it is entitled to have an uranium enrichment program for its development of the nuclear power plant. North Korea also asked the U.S. to agree to a non-aggression pact. [link] [link]
- In December 2002, the United States took the first step to terminate the Agreed Framework, suspending fuel oil shipments, arguing North Korea's uranium program violated the "spirit" of the agreement. North Korea responded by announcing it would restart plutonium production and repeating its intention to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [link]
- On January 10, 2003, North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
- In late January 2003, Japan Defense Agency Director Shigeru Ishiba told reporters that if North Korea "begins preparations to attack [Japan], for instance by fueling its missiles, we will consider North Korea is initiating a military attack" and preemptively strike missile bases in DPRK. [link]
- The United States stated on February 26, 2003 that North Korea had reactivated a reactor at its main nuclear complex.
- North Korean fighter aircraft intercepted and may have targeted a United States reconnaissance aircraft over International Waters in the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea) on March 2, 2003, the first such interception since 1969.
- On April 24, 2003, the United States, People's Republic of China, and North Korea met in Beijing for trilateral discussions. The United States threatened sanctions against North Korea, which North Korea has said would constitute a "declaration of war."
- On May 12, 2003, North Korea declared the 1992 accord with South Korea nullified, which agreed to keep the Korean peninsula free of nuclear weapons, citing U.S. hostility as a threat to its sovereignty. [link] South Korea considers the accord in effect.
- On August 28, 2003, North Korea announced at six-nation talks in Beijing that it was prepared to "declare itself formally as a nuclear weapons state," and claimed to have the means to deliver nuclear weapons. The North Korean delegation also says the country will soon be carrying out a nuclear test to demonstrate its nuclear capability.[link]
- On September 9, 2004, the Ryanggang explosion occurred in North Korea. For awhile some speculated that it was a nuclear test, though this has been denied by both the North Korean government as well as by other intelligence agencies, and there were no reports from other nations of detecting tell-tale radiological traces of a nuclear test.
- On September 28, 2004, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Su-hon told the UN General Assembly that the "hostile policy" of the United States was responsible for the nuclear standoff. At a news conference after his address, Choe said his country had converted 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods into weapons.[link]
- North Korea announced on February 10, 2005 that it had developed nuclear weapons for its self-defense, and suspended participation in the Six-party talks.[link]
- In early May 2005 the United States claimed satellite imagery showed possible preparations for a nuclear test, with holes being dug and then filled and a "reviewing stand" built several miles from the site. [link]
- On September 19, 2005, Six-party talks resulted in an agreement where North Korea agreed to abandon its nuclear weapons program for economic cooperation and assistance, repeating its right to "peaceful uses of nuclear energy," while the U.S. recognized North Korea's sovereignty and stated that it had no intention to attack North Korea. The provision of a nuclear light-water reactor would be discussed at "an appropriate time"; the U.S. and North Korea immediately disagreed on when that should be. [link]
- In mid-June, 2006, North Korea began fueling some of the Taepodong-2 missiles that it possesses. This missile theoretically could reach the continental United States if targeted there. [link]
- On July 4, 2006, North Korea launched six total test missiles, all of which landed in the Sea of Japan. One test missile was a long range Taepodong-2 missile, which failed and broke up over the Sea of Japan 40 seconds after launch. The other five missiles were smaller, short range missiles.
- On July 6, 2006, North Korea announced it would continue to launch missiles, as well as "stronger steps", if international countries were to apply additional pressure as a result of the latest missile launches, claiming it to be their sovereign right to carry out these tests. A US television network also reports that they have quoted intelligence sources in saying that North Korea is readying another Taepodong-2 long-range missile for launch. [link]
Biological and chemical weapons
North Korea is widely believed to possess a substantial arsenal of chemical weapons. It reportedly acquired the technology necessary to produce tabun and mustard gas as early as the 1950s,[link] and now possesses a full arsenal of nerve agent and other advanced varieties, and has developed the means to launch them in artillery shells.#redirect North Korea has a large artillery arsenal within range of Seoul, South Korea's capital, and a chemical attack could cause a very large number of casualties.#redirect This threat is, until the development of nuclear weapons, the North's most potent insurance against an attack from the South.North Korea has expended considerable resources on equipping its army with chemical-protection equipment.#redirect
North Korea acceded to the Biological Weapons Convention in 1987, the Geneva Protocol on January 4, 1989, but has not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Delivery systems
North Korea's ability to deliver weapons of mass destruction to a hypothetical target is somewhat limited by its missile technology. As of 2005, North Korea's total range with its No Dong missiles is only 1,300 km, enough to reach South Korea, Japan, and parts of Russia and China, but not to the United States or Europe. It is not known if this missile is actually capable of carrying the nuclear weapons North Korea has so far developed. BM-25 is a North Korean designed long-range ballistic missile with range capabilities of up to 1,550 miles (2493km), and potential of carrying a nuclear warhead. They have also developed the Taepodong-1 missile, which has a range of 2,000 km, but it is not yet in full deployment. With the development of the Taepodong-2 missile, with an expected range of 5,000-6,000 km[link], North Korea could hypothetically deliver a warhead to almost all countries in Southeast Asia, and parts of Alaska or the continental United States. Former CIA director George Tenet has claimed that, with a light payload, Taepodong-2 could reach western parts of Continental United States, though with low accuracy. [link]
North Korea could be seen as a threat to the region, the U.S. established the "Six Party Talks", inviting North Korea to join the United States, China, Russia, Japan, and South Korea.
On June 19 2006 there were news reports of an approaching test of a missile with the potential to target much of East Asia and across the Pacific to the continental United States. Some reports suggested that a satellite launch is being prepared rather than a missile test. [link] The rocket launch site was reported as the No-Dong facility on the Musu-dan promontory in the Sea of Japan. Satellite navigation tools such as Google Earth reveal an approximately 50m-long assembly building at (approximately) , with nearby launch, control and engine test facilities. On 5 July 2006 (local time), North Korea conducted multiple missile launch tests. Several short range missiles and a long-range Taepodong-2 ICBM were fired despite international pressure to cancel the launch. The long range missile failed and fell into the Sea of Japan just 45 seconds after launch. The Japanese reported that the long range missile may have been aimed at Hawaii. Washington denies this claim. They believe it was for international attention and propaganda purposes due to the launch date (American Independence Day). While improving the missile defense system, President George W. Bush insists that diplomacy is key but a military strike (or any thing else) cannot be ruled out. Days later, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il threatened a nuclear war if a preemptive strike is launched and warned that any sanctions against North Korea will be taken as a "declaration of war."
See also
- Foreign relations of North Korea
- Ryanggang explosion
- U.S.-North Korea relations
- List of Korea-related topics
- Nuclear blackmail
External links
Continuing coverage
- [Yahoo! News - Full Coverage: North Korea]
- [Pyongyang Square] Independent news coverage on North Korea
- [KCNA] The Korean Central News Agency.
- [News Now] news aggregator
News articles and Analysis
- [The Best U.S. Response to North Korea's Failed Missile Test] NOW on PBS, July 7, 2006
- [North Korea Says it Will Abandon Nuclear Efforts] The New York Times, September 19, 2005
- [An Antarctic Solution For the Koreas] San Diego Union-Tribune, August 25, 2005
- [North Korea's nuclear program, 2005], Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2005
- [Did North Korea cheat?], Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2005. Note: Foreign Affairs is a publication by the Council on Foreign Relations. Reader discretion is advised.
- [Diplomacy Fails to Slow Advance of Nuclear Arms], New York Times, August 8, 2004
- [Talks on North Korea Nuclear Dispute Under Way], Associated Press, April 24, 2003
- [Seoul to push North Korea on nukes], CNN, April 27, 2003
- [Koreas Agree to Seek Peaceful End To Crisis], Reuters, January 23, 2003
- [North Korean Nukes], PBS NewsHour report, January 8, 2003
- [Targeting North Korea by Gregory Elich], globalresearch.ca, 31 December 2002
- [Japan and South Korea: North Korea's Revelations Could Derail Normalization, Its Neighbors Say], The New York Times, October 18, 2002
- [South Korea: Revelation Elicits Ire and Disdain in Seoul], The New York Times, October 18, 2002
- [U.S. Says Pakistan Gave Technology to North Korea], The New York Times, October 18, 2002
- [North Korea Says It Has a Program on Nuclear Arms], The New York Times, October 17, 2002
- [Did North Korea Cheat?], Foreign Affairs, January/February 2005
- [Dismantling the DPRK's Nuclear Weapons Program: A Practicable, Verifiable Plan of Action] U.S. Institute of Peace, January 2006
- [Economist.com : Rocket Man] ( July 2006, Subscription Required )
Reference sources
- [Federation of American Scientists guide to North Korean chemical weapons]
- [North Korea's missile arsenal] – Key facts (based on South Korean defense ministry data); AFP, 1 June 2005
- [North Korea: Problems, Perceptions and Proposals] – Oxford Research Group, April 2004
- [Nuclear Files.org] Information on the North Korean nuclear program including links to source documents
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