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Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2006

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Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election of 2006 (held on 23 January 2006) showed a long period of variable support for the governing Liberal Party of Canada and opposition Conservative Party of Canada. Prior to and throughout much of the campaign, the Liberals held a small lead over the Conservatives; as of early January 2006, the Conservatives had taken the lead. This was confirmed on election day when the Conservatives won a plurality of votes and seats, being empowered to form a minority government in the 39th Canadian Parliament.

Contents

Summary

In the leadup to the 2006 federal election, several opinion polls were commissioned to gauge the voting intentions of Canadians, particularly in the wake of Jean Brault's testimony at the Gomery Commission on 7 April 2005. The results of these polls showed a dip in support for the Liberals, which encouraged the Conservatives to seek an early election by tabling a non-confidence motion. However, Liberal support recovered following an agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP) to support some changes to the federal budget and a number of incidents involving Conservative Member of Parliament (MP) Gurmant Grewal that hurt the Conservatives. Consistently since the Brault testimony, the polls have indicated that an election would result in an increase in the number of seats for the Bloc Québécois and NDP, and cyclical gains and losses for the Conservatives inversely to the Liberals.

In November 2005, the first report by Justice John Gomery was released to the public; subsequently, the poll numbers for the Liberals again dropped. Just days later, a new poll (Strategic Counsel: 6 November 2005) showed the Liberals were already bouncing back. On 28 November 2005, the minority Liberal government succumbed to another Conservative non-confidence motion supported by the three opposition parties and the writs for an election were dropped. The Conservatives achieved near parity but, early in the campaign, again fell back behind the Liberals. Renewed accusations of corruption and impropriety at the end of 2005 – amid Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) criminal probes concerning possible government leaks regarding income trust tax changes and advertising sponsorships – led to an upswing of Conservative support again and gave them a lead over the Liberals, portending a possible change in government.

Polling figures for the NDP increased slightly, while Bloc figures experienced a slight dip; figures for the Green Party did not change appreciably throughout the campaign.

Poll results

The dates listed are normally the date the survey was concluded. Most news and political affairs sources use the convention of using the last date that the poll was conducted in order to establish the inclusion/exclusion of current events.

Polling Firm Date Link Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Green
Election 2006 January 232006 [HTML] 30.2 36.3 17.5 10.5 4.5
Strategic Counsel January 222006 [PDF] 27 37 19 11 6
SES Research January 22 [PDF] 30.1 36.4 17.4 10.6 5.6
Ipsos-Reid January 22 [HTML] 27 38 19 12 4
SES Research January 21 [PDF] 28.1 37.0 17.7 11.3 6.0
Strategic Counsel January 21 [PDF] 27 37 18 11 6
SES Research January 20 [PDF] 29.4 36.2 17.3 11.0 6.1
EKOS January 20 [PDF] 26.9 37.1 19.5 11.5 4.6
EKOS January 20 [PDF] 24.4 38.4 19.8 11.9 5.4
Ipsos-Reid January 19 [HTML] 26 38 19 11 5
EKOS January 19 [PDF] 27.0 37.1 19.7 11.2 4.5
Strategic Counsel January 19 [PDF] 28 38 17 11 7
SES Research January 19 [PDF] 29.0 35.5 18.8 11.1 5.6
EKOS January 19 [PDF] 27.3 37.4 20.8 10.1 3.9
Strategic Counsel January 18 [PDF] 28 37 16 12 7
SES Research January 18 [PDF] 30.7 37.0 16.6 10.7 4.9
EKOS January 18 [PDF] 29.3 35.1 18.0 12.6 4.4
Leger Marketing January 17 [PDF] 29 38 17 11
Strategic Counsel January 17 [PDF] 25 41 17 12 5
SES Research January 17 [PDF] 31.5 36.9 17.6 10.0 4.0
EKOS January 17 [PDF] 27.2 36.9 19.6 11.0 4.8
Strategic Counsel January 16 [PDF] 24 42 17 12 5
SES Research January 16 [PDF] 30 37 18 10 4
EKOS January 16 [PDF] 29.6 35.8 19.4 11.6 3.4
Decima Research January 15 [PDF] 27 37 18 11 7
Ipsos-Reid January 15 [HTML] 26 38 19 12 5
Strategic Counsel January 15 [PDF] 27 40 16 11 6
SES Research January 15 [PDF] 29 37 18 11 5
EKOS January 15 [PDF] 27.2 38.6 18.6 10.6 4.4
SES Research January 14 [PDF] 30 38 17 10 6
Strategic Counsel January 14 [PDF] 27 40 16 11 6
SES Research January 13 [PDF] 29 38 16 11 7
Strategic Counsel January 12 [PDF] 28 38 16 11 6
Ipsos-Reid January 12 [HTML] 29 37 18 10 5
SES Research January 12 [PDF] 31 40 14 10 6
EKOS January 12 [PDF] 28.3 37.6 18.1 11.6 3.7
EKOS January 12 [PDF] 27.4 38.1 18.1 11.5 4.5
Strategic Counsel January 11 [PDF] 27 39 16 12 6
SES Research January 11 [PDF] 29 38 16 12 5
EKOS January 11 [PDF] 28.8 36.3 17.9 13.3 2.8
Strategic Counsel January 10 [PDF] 28 39 16 12 5
SES Research January 10 [PDF] 30 39 16 12 4
EKOS January 10 [PDF] 29.9 37.1 17.6 11.6 3.2
Strategic Counsel January 9 [PDF] 28 38 16 12 6
SES Research January 9 [PDF] 31 35 17 13 5
EKOS January 9 [PDF] 26.8 39.1 16.2 12.6 5.4
Ipsos-Reid January 8 [HTML] 26 37 18 13 5
Decima Research January 8 [PDF] 27 36 20 11 5
SES Research January 8 [PDF] 31 34 17 11 6
Strategic Counsel January 8 [PDF] 29 37 15 13 6
SES Research January 7 [PDF] 32 34 17 11 6
SES Research January 6 [PDF] 32 35 17 10 6
Ipsos-Reid January 5 [HTML] 31 35 18 10 5
EKOS January 5 [PDF] 30.8 36.0 17.5 10.6 4.7
Strategic Counsel January 5 [PDF] 31 33 17 13 6
SES Research January 5 [PDF] 33 34 17 11 5
Leger Marketing January 4 [PDF] 32 34 16 11 5
Strategic Counsel January 4 [PDF] 32 32 17 13 6
SES Research January 4 [PDF] 33 35 15 12 5
EKOS January 4 [PDF] 30.4 36.2 17.9 10.4 4.7
Strategic Counsel January 3 [PDF] 32 32 17 13 6
SES Research January 3 [PDF] 33 36 15 13 4
Strategic Counsel December 31 2005 [PDF] 33 31 17 14 6
SES Research December 30 [PDF] 35 35 14 13 4
Ipsos-Reid December 30 [HTML] 32 33 18 12 5
Decima Research December 30 [PDF] 32 30 18 14
SES Research December 29 [PDF] 35 34 14 13 5
SES Research December 28 [PDF] 38 32 14 13 4
SES Research December 23 [PDF] 38 31 15 12 5
Ipsos-Reid December 22 [HTML] 33 32 16 13 5
Strategic Counsel December 22 [PDF] 36 29 17 13 5
SES Research December 22 [PDF] 39 29 15 12 5
Environics December 21 [HTML] 35 30 17 12 5
Strategic Counsel December 21 [PDF] 33 30 18 14 5
Leger Marketing December 21 [PDF] 36 28 17 12 5
SES Research December 21 [PDF] 37 29 15 12 6
Strategic Counsel December 20 [PDF] 34 30 16 15 5
SES Research December 20 [PDF] 37 31 14 13 6
Strategic Counsel December 19 [PDF] 33 29 17 15 6
SES Research December 19 [PDF] 37 29 16 13 5
Strategic Counsel December 18 [PDF] 34 29 19 13 5
Pollara December 18 [HTML] 37 34 17 10
SES Research December 18 [PDF] 38 29 16 12 4
SES Research December 17 [PDF] 38 30 15 13 4
SES Research December 16 [PDF] 39 31 14 12 5
Strategic Counsel December 15 [PDF] 34 30 18 13 5
SES Research December 15 [PDF] 39 33 12 12 5
Strategic Counsel December 14 [PDF] 34 30 17 14 5
SES Research December 14 [PDF] 39 32 12 12 5
Leger Marketing December 13 [PDF] 35 29 17 12 6
Strategic Counsel December 13 [PDF] 34 29 17 14 6
SES Research December 13 [PDF] 38 31 14 12 5
Strategic Counsel December 12 [PDF] 33 31 17 13 6
SES Research December 12 [PDF] 38 30 13 14 5
Ipsos-Reid December 11 [HTML] 36 27 17 14 5
Pollara December 11 [HTML] 38 30 15 12
Strategic Counsel December 11 [PDF] 34 30 16 14 6
SES Research December 11 [PDF] 39 31 14 13 4
Strategic Counsel December 10 [PDF] 35 30 15 14 6
SES Research December 10 [PDF] 39 32 14 13 4
Decima Research December 9 [PDF] 36 27 20 13 4
SES Research December 9 [PDF] 39 30 15 11 4
Strategic Counsel December 8 [PDF] 36 28 16 14 6
SES Research December 8 [PDF] 41 26 18 11 4
Ipsos-Reid December 8 [HTML] 34 30 15 14 5
Leger Marketing December 7 [PDF] 39 27 16 12 5
Strategic Counsel December 7 [PDF] 36 30 15 14 5
SES Research December 7 [PDF] 40 26 18 11 4
Strategic Counsel December 6 [PDF] 35 29 16 13 6
SES Research December 6 [PDF] 40 28 17 11 4
Decima Research December 5 34 26 20 14
Strategic Counsel December 5 [PDF] 35 29 16 14 6
SES Research December 5 [PDF] 38 30 16 12 5
Strategic Counsel December 4 [PDF] 35 29 16 14 6
SES Research December 4 [PDF] 37 30 16 13 5
Strategic Counsel December 3 [PDF] 34 30 16 14 6
SES Research December 3 [PDF] 38 29 15 14 5
SES Research December 2 [PDF] 36 31 14 14 5
Ipsos-Reid December 1 [HTML] 33 31 17 14 5
Strategic Counsel December 1 35 30 16 14 6
SES Research December 1 [PDF] 37 29 15 14 5
EKOS December 1 [PDF] 34.1 27.4 18.4 14.0 6.0
Strategic Counsel November 30 [PDF] 35 30 17 14 5
Ipsos-Reid November 28 [HTML] 31 31 18 15 5
Decima Research November 28 36 28 19 12
Strategic Counsel November 27 [PDF] 35 29 17 14 5
Pollara November 27 [HTML] 36 31 16 14
Environics November 25 35 30 20 14 1
EKOS November 24 [PDF] 38.7 29.4 16.9 10.6 3.0
Ipsos-Reid November 24 [HTML] 34 30 16 15 5
Ipsos-Reid November 15 36 27 16 13 6
Decima Research November 14 [PDF] 33 26 22 13
Pollara November 13 36 28 20
SES Research November 13 [PDF] 34 28 20 14 4
Ipsos-Reid November 10 34 28 19 14 4
EKOS November 9 [PDF] 33.0 27.9 20.9 13.1 4.9
Leger Marketing November 8 [PDF] 34 26 18 11 7
Decima Research November 7 [PDF] 33 30 20 14
Strategic Counsel November 6 35 28 16 13 8
Strategic Counsel November 3 28 31 20 13 7
Ipsos-Reid November 2 31 30 19 13 5
SES Research October 27 [PDF] 40 28 15 12 4
Ipsos-Reid October 27 38 26 18 11 5
Pollara October 17 38 30 17
Decima Research October 17 [PDF] 35 29 17 13
Environics October 16 38 27 20 10
Strategic Counsel October 13 [PDF] 38 25 15 14
Pollara October 2 36 30 19 11
Ipsos-Reid September 29 37 27 17 14 4
Decima Research September 26 [PDF] 36 29 17 13
Praxicus September 23 33 29 20
Strategic Counsel September 13 35 28 17 13 7
Leger Marketing September 11 [PDF] 40 24 15 13 5
Ipsos-Reid August 22 36 28 17 11 6
Strategic Counsel August 15 36 28 17
SES Research August 8 [PDF] 39 25 19 13
Environics July 28 [HTML] 34 31 20 11
Decima Research July 25 [PDF] 39 24 19 14
Pollara July 18 38 27 15 13
Strategic Counsel July 16 35 26 19 13 7
Pollara June 28 36 29 18 11
Ipsos-Reid June 28 35 27 18 13 6
Decima Research June 20 [PDF] 37 25 20 13
Ipsos-Reid June 20 34 29 16 12 6
Strategic Counsel June 11 34 26 19 13 9
Pollara June 6 38 27 19 13
Decima Research June 5 [PDF] 37 23 21 13
Decima Research May 22 [PDF] 36 27 21 13
Leger Marketing May 22 [HTML] 38 27 17 12 4
Ipsos-Reid May 20 34 28 17
6
Strategic Counsel May 18 33 30 19 12 6
COMPAS May 17 [PDF] 29 38 17 13
EKOS May 17 [PDF] 34.7 28.3 18.4 12.6 5.6
Environics May 17 33 31 22 10
Decima Research May 15 [PDF] 32 31 19 14
Ipsos-Reid May 14 27 31 19 13 6
Strategic Counsel May 10 27 31 20 14 7
Decima Research May 8 [PDF] 37 28 18 12
Ipsos-Reid May 7 32 31 16 12 5
SES Research May 5 36.1 29.5 17.9 12.2 4.3
Pollara May 4 31 36 17 15
Decima Research May 2 [PDF] 32 29 20 15
Ipsos-Reid April 30 30 33 17 12 5
EKOS April 28 [PDF] 32.5 30.5 19.0 12.0 5.5
GPC P.A. April 28 33 30 13 13 10
Strategic Counsel April 28 30 28 18 16 10
Ipsos-Reid April 26 31 34 18 11 5
Decima Research April 24 [PDF] 27 32 21 15
Ipsos-Reid April 22 30 35 18 12 5
Pollara April 21 31 35 18 12
SES Research April 18 31.6 37.9 14.9 11.9 3.8
Decima Research April 17 [PDF] 28 35 18 14
Ipsos-Reid April 15 27 36 15 10 2
COMPAS April 14 30 34 18 15 1
Environics April 14 27 33 24 11 2
Environics April 12 36 30 19 11 4
Ipsos-Reid April 12 27 30 19 12 7
Decima Research April 10 [PDF] 31 32 19 14
EKOS April 9 [PDF] 25.0 36.2 20.5 12.6 5.0
Ipsos-Reid April 9 34 30 15 10
Last election 28 June 2004 [HTML] 36.7 29.6 15.7 12.4 4.3

  1. ↑  Strategic Counsel polls from November 27th onwards are multi-day polls. Each new poll removes approximately 1/3 of the data that is the oldest, and replaces it with new data from that day.
  2. ↑  SES polls from December onwards are 3-day polls. Each new poll removes the 1/3 of the data that is the oldest, and replaces it with new data from that day.
  3. ↑  Various EKOS polls contain results from a single night of polling only. They have fewer respondents than most other polls and, thus, EKOS notes that they are not as credible; however, they are intended to provide a general indication of daily polling trends.
  4. ↑  This Compas poll was taken over the course of a single day.
  5. ↑  Polling for this data mostly occurred before Jean Brault's Gomery Inquiry testimony was released.
NB: The margin of error in these surveys is typically between 2.5 and 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. See the links for actual error values associated with particular surveys. Note also that because these figures are national percentages, they may not reflect the expected number of seats won by each party. Indeed, the sample size in many polls is not sufficient to give a statistically accurate prediction in individual ridings, and hence the expected number of seats.

All polling companies rely on cooperation from individuals contacted over the phone. The major companies claim a typical response rate is between 20 and 35 percent. [link]

Seat predictions

Several websites, polling firms and notable Canadians devised various method of projecting the final election result. Included below are those cited in Andrew Coyne's blog. [link]

Projector Conservative Liberal NDP BQ

Other
Final Results [HTML] 124 103 29 51 1
[ElectionPrediction.org] 118 104 29 56 1
[democraticSPACE.com] 128 94 29 56 1
UBC Election Stock Market [link] 127 93 33 54 1
[jord.ca] 135 72 38 62 1
[Loblaw Election Pool] 136 89 26 57 0
Laurier University [link] 140 78 33 56 1
[trendlines.ca] 140 75 35 57 1
Andrew Coyne [link] 140 81 31 54 2
[ElectionPolls] 141 79 30 58 1
[PinnacleSports.com] 146 74 31 57 0
Ipsos-Reid [link] 148-152 62-66 34-38 56-60

See also

External links

 

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