United States House elections, 2006
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Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 7 2006, with all of the 435 seats in the House up for election. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 110th United States Congress from January 3 2007 until January 3 2009.
The 2006 Senate election is scheduled for the same date as the House election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.
Summary
The House is currently composed of 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats and 1 Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats). The two vacant seats are and Texas's 22nd congressional district. Republicans hold a 29 seat advantage, so Democrats would need to pick up 15 seats to take control of the House, which has had a Republican majority since 1995. Predictions based on historical trends suggest that such a swing is possible, if not probable[Projections based on analysis in The Politics of Congressional Elections, by Gary Jacobson].This page is for swing districts and notable races. A complete list of the races in all districts (but without the commentary below) can be found at United States House election, 2006 complete list.
Vulnerable incumbents and open seats
It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed here, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances.There are currently 30 open seats—28 incumbents who will not be seeking re-election plus 2 vacancies; , which will be filled at the same time as the general election, with the winner taking office in November, immediately after the votes are certified; and , which has not yet announced final plans for a special election. Of the 28 open seats, 19 are held by Republicans, 8 are held by Democrats and 1 is held by an independent. The vacant seat in New Jersey was held by a Democrat, and the one in Texas was Republican.
Swing Districts and notable races
Arizona
The primary is on September 12, 2006.
- — Incumbent Rick Renzi (R) is well-known for his strong, arguably extreme conservative positions in a district that is moderately conservative at best.[[Citing sources citation needed]] In 2002 he won only 49% of the vote, elected by just 6,000 votes. Renzi gained national attention in 2004 when he engaged in a screaming match against moderate Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois over the issue of embryonic stem cell research, which Renzi considers an act of murder. According to media reports, Renzi choked Kirk during the incident. Both Congressmen have since denied the reports. Renzi has also stated that he will not return some $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, despite calls from Democrats to do so. Liberal advocacy group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has included Renzi in its list of the 13 most corrupt members of the House of Representatives. However, Renzi's leading opponent dropped out of the race and none of the remaining five Democrats currently running is considered a viable candidate. Libertarian David B. Schlosser has also qualified for the November ballot.
California
- — Although this Northern California district has generally been considered a safe seat for Republicans, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has singled out the race as being potentially in play, given Republican incumbent John Doolittle’s association with congressional corruption scandals, including ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and defense contractor Brent Wilkes.[path may follow Doolittle's easy victory," The Sacramento Bee], June 8, 2006["Democrats say they may target Doolittle," The Sacramento Bee], May 18, 2006 And Doolittle received less than 42% of the total votes cast in the June 2006 primaries.[California's 4th district primary election results] Democratic nominee Charles Brown, Lt. Colonel, USAF Retired, is running against Doolittle in the general election.
- — Longtime incumbent Richard Pombo (R) won reelection in 2004 by a reasonably comfortable 61% to 39% margin. Pombo has also been associated with the ethical and legal scandals revolving around Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff and is currently under investigation, which is seen as eroding his popular support. The Democratic candidate who garnered the 39% in 2004, Jerry McNerney, joined that race as a write-in candidate two weeks before the primary election. Another Democratic candidate for the seat, Steve Filson, was backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, but was surprisingly defeated by McNerney in the primary. Pombo was challenged for the Republican nomination by former Representative Pete McCloskey, one of the co-authors of the Endangered Species Act. Pombo won 63% of the primary vote.[California's 11th district primary election results] The eleventh district is located in the San Joaquin Valley well east of the San Francisco Bay Area, and leans Republican. A recent poll showed Pombo losing to Jerry McNerney, 46-42.["Some see cracks in Pombo's big House race win," The Sacramento Bee], June 8, 2006["Poll Shows That If Election Were Held Today A Majority Would Vote Against Pombo," Defenders Of Wildlife Action Fund], May 10, 2006
- — Incumbent Republican Bill Thomas, a prominent and influential member of the Republican caucus, is retiring after more than 25 years in Congress. He represents agricultural Central Valley, a Republican stronghold where 52% of voters are registered Republicans and 30% are Democrats. He won re-election in 2004 unopposed. Republican Leader of the California Assembly, Kevin McCarthy, a former aide to Thomas, is the GOP nominee and is very popular in the Central Valley.[foxnews.com]
- — Incumbent Republican Jerry Lewis (R) is under investigation for his connections to the lobbyists that bribed former Representative Duke Cunningham(R).[link][link][link] As election day nears and the scandal heats up, this long-time incumbent faces a potentially tough race in this long-time conservative stronghold.[link] Lewis received 83% of the vote in 2004, but he faced no Democratic opposition. He will face Democrat Louie Contreras in November.
- —The winner of the special election on June 6, 2006 was former Congressman Brian Bilbray. He was challenged by Cardiff School Board member Francine Busby, who appeared to have pulled ahead during the campaign. However, in the final week of the election, she was overheard implying that she was encouraging illegal aliens to vote. The Bilbray campaign gleefully broadcast that remark throughout the district. Republicans invested five million dollars in the race, and Democrats two million, and Bilbray won the election by a 5% margin. He will still remain a target of the Democrats in the November election, but this was seen as Busby's best chance at victory and Bilbray will now have the advantages of incumbency.
Colorado
The primary is on August 8, 2006.
- — Incumbent John Salazar (D) was elected in 2004 by a 50% to 47% margin. Salazar's victory was in part because his Republican opponent backed a locally unpopular plan to redistribute water from the western slope, the heart of this district, to Denver. Also, the election was generally good to Colorado Democrats, who gained a U.S. Senate seat (won by Salazar's brother, Ken), a House seat (this one), and control of the state legislature. But Republicans vow to take back this competitive (though narrowly won by President Bush) district nestled in the Rocky Mountains of Western Colorado. Currently Republican businessman Scott Tipton is running.
- — Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R), a very conservative Republican who has violated military code for political gain she was one of the leading proponents of the Federal Marriage Amendment and won a surprisingly close 51% to 44% reelection in 2004 despite the Republican-leaning nature of her eastern Colorado district. Her district consists of all of Eastern Colorado well east of Denver, and northeastern Colorado around Fort Collins and Loveland. Her Democratic opponent is state Representative Angie Paccione, and former Reagan appointee Eric Eidsness has entered the race as a Reform Party candidate.
- — Incumbent Joel Hefley (R), the dean of the Colorado delegation to the House of Representatives, announced on February 16, 2006 that he will be retiring from his seat and not seeking an 11th term. This district has a very strong Republican tilt, so strong that it has not elected a Democrat to represent it since its creation in 1876. Local attorney Duncan Bremer, former El Paso County Sheriff John Anderson, Colorado Springs Mayor Lionel Rivera, state Senator Doug Lamborn, recently retired Major General Bentley Rayburn, and former Congressional aide Jeff Crank are the declared Republican candidates thus far in the race. Democrat Jay Fawcett, a 20 year Air Force Veteran who fought in the Gulf War, is the first Democrat to announce that he is running. Because of the conservative leaning nature of the district, which in 2004 reelected Hefley with 71% and President Bush won with 65%, it is largely believed that the winner of the Republican primary will emerge victorious in the general election against any potential Democratic opponent.[foxnews.com]
- — Incumbent Tom Tancredo (R), a firebrand in the Republican caucus, has spent the last two years making numerous controversial statements and taking stances at odds with some of his electorate, such as opposing gun control in a district which experienced the Columbine Massacre, a stance which nearly cost him reelection previously. He won with 60% of the vote in 2004, however his opponent in 2006 will be Bill Winter a Veteran of both the Navy and Marine Corps. Tancredo's chances at reelection are very high despite his verbal gaffes because he represents a solidly Republican district that gave President Bush his highest vote total in the state, but he has alienated much of the Republican leadership by harshly criticizing the president's stances on illegal immigration, climaxing in a "screaming match" with Karl Rove at the White House, where Rove told Tancredo not to "darken the doorstep of the White House".[link] The position of the GOP on Tancredo remains ambiguous and whether they will attempt to remove him or support him is currently unknown. Tancredo recently remarked that if U.S. Senator Wayne Allard were to retire in 2008, he would run to succeed Allard.[[Citing sources citation needed]]
- — Incumbent Bob Beauprez (R) was reelected to a second term in 2004 with 55% of the vote, but won his first term by only 121 votes. His retirement to run for Governor of Colorado makes this seat highly competitive. The 7th District is located in the western Denver suburbs and was narrowly won by John Kerry in 2004. State education chairman Rick O'Donnell leads early polls for the Republicans; former state Representative Peggy Lamm leads former State Senator Ed Perlmutter on the Democratic side. Perlmutter is better-funded and backed by organized labor, but Lamm is the sister-in-law of former Democratic Governor Richard Lamm and is benefitting from her familiar last name. Michael Schiavo is actively campaigning for Lamm. Dave Chandler, a Green, is also a candidate.
Connecticut
The primary is on August 8, 2006.
- — Incumbent Rob Simmons (R) a Vietnam War veteran and winner of the Silver Star, won reelection by 54% to 46% in 2004, in a Democratic-leaning district encompassing eastern Connecticut, which includes Norwich and New London. The 2002 nominee, former state Representative Joe Courtney lacks military experience but is planning another run. Simmons received great credit for saving the New London submarine base from closure in the BRAC process, is closely aigned with fellow Vietnam War veteran John McCain, and made no political mistakes of note, but Bush is highly unpopular in New England, which should help Courtney.
- — Incumbent Chris Shays (R) won reelection by a 52% to 48% margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-trending district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport. Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell, the 2004 nominee, is challenging Shays again and is well-funded. Shays's problem now is almost exclusively centered on his support for the Iraq War, as he is mostly liberal on domestic issues. Shays' endorsement of Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman struck many as signs of worry on his part. Shays can't be attacked as a knee-jerk conservative, but local unpopularity of both George W. Bush and the Iraq War are helping Farrell's campaign.
- — Although incumbent Nancy Johnson (R) won with at least 60% of the vote in 2004 and faced a difficult challenge (running against a fellow incumbent in a redrawn district) in 2002, winning with just 54%, she is still a Republican in a swing district. While the 5th is Connecticut's most conservative region, John Kerry won the district by about 1100 votes in 2004 and Al Gore won it when Johnson represented it as the 6th District in 2000. She faces a credible challenge from state Senator Chris Murphy. Johnson is popular in the district, but with Bush's rating in New England at rock bottom, a Democratic victory is possible. In fact, in a slightly more Democratic district and with a weak Republican presidential candidate, Bob Dole, leading the ticket, Johnson very nearly lost in 1996. Johnson is a prodigious fundraiser, and added $867,000 to her coffers in the last quarter, raising her cash on hand to over $2.6 million.
Florida
The primary is on September 5, 2006.
- — Incumbent Mike Bilirakis (R) plans to retire, and many had not expected this seat to be very competitive as it is a Republican-leaning district located on Florida's Gulf Coast north of Tampa. Bilirakis' son, state Representative Gus Bilirakis, has announced that he will run for his father's seat. He appears to be the front runner in his party, though he faces a primary challenge from chiropractor Dave Langheier. Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky is the likely Democratic nominee. After Busansky reported stronger than expected first-quarter fundraising, many have begun categorizing this race as competitive. Due in part to Busansky's fundraising, the DCCC has chosen her as one of 22 candidates that have the potential to pick up seats, and will likely provide Busansky with a high amount of funding. (For more details, see Florida 9th congressional district election, 2006)
- — Incumbent Jim Davis (D) is running for governor, and this seat is not expected to be very competitive as it contains solidly Democratic Tampa and South St. Petersburg. Florida State Senate Democratic Leader Les Miller and Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor have announced that they will run for the seat.
- — Incumbent Katherine Harris (R) is planning to challenge Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat, in 2006 and will vacate her Gulf Coast seat to do so. Polls show she faces an uphill battle in the Senate race, but any Republican likely has the edge to win her congressional district, which is solidly GOP-leaning and based in Sarasota and Manatee. Harris won reelection in 2004 with an unexpectedly modest 55% of the vote. State Representative Nancy Detert, banker George "Tramm" Hudson, wealthy automobile dealer Vern Buchanan and former state Representative Mark Flanagan are running for the Republican nomination. The two Democrats vying for their party's nomination are Sarasota banker and businesswoman Christine Jennings and the nominee in the 2004 race, Jan Schneider. Jennings has been heavily outraising Schneider.
- — Republican incumbent Clay Shaw has been elected to twelve terms in the House and has a local following going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale in the 1970s. He is seeking reelection to his seat, but many Democrats hope that this time around number 13 really will be unlucky. Shaw faced a tough challenge back in 2000 from State Senator Elaine Bloom, who lost by only 599 votes. But Shaw was redistricted into more favorable turf and scored somewhat easier reelections in 2002 and 2004. Now he is once again a top target of the Democrats—this time, State Senate Minority Leader Ron Klein plans to challenge Shaw. Expect this race to be very close as Klein is a good fundraiser and good friend of neighboring Congressman Robert Wexler. Shaw has been criticized for refusing to return $30,000 in campaign contributions from ARMPAC, which notes former Texas congressman Tom DeLay as one of its founders. Though Shaw won reelection to this seat in 2004 with 63% of the vote, John Kerry still defeated George W. Bush in the district by a margin of 50% to 48%. Also, Shaw's opponent in 2004 dropped out before the election. The revelation that Shaw has lung cancer makes the race even more unpredictable.
- - Incumbent Tom Feeney will face Clint Curtis.
Feeney also may be hurt by donations he received from Jack Abramoff and convicted former Tom DeLay Chief of Staff Tony Rudy.
Georgia
- — A Republican mid-decade redistricting made this Macon-based district more compact and somewhat more Republican. Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall faces a very tough race against former Congressman Mac Collins, who represented an adjoining district from 1993 to 2005. Marshall was reelected with 63% in 2004, but in 2002 won by only 50.5% to 49.5%. This is one of the most competitive House races in the nation. Some think that Marshall hurt his chances when he voted against a Congressional resolution to condemn the radical Palestinian group Hamas [[Citing sources citation needed]].
- — Democrat John Barrow unseated first-term Republican Max Burns by 52% to 48% in a solidly Democratic district which Burns won over a scandal-tainted opponent in 2002. This year, Burns is seeking a rematch. Recent redistricting made this southern Georgia district more marginal, but the balance still leans to the Democrats.
Hawaii
- — In a surprise move, Rep. Ed Case announced in January of 2006 that he would challenge Daniel Akaka for the Democratic nomination to the United States Senate. This opens up his Democratic-leaning seat, which includes Kauai, Maui, The Big Island and part of Honolulu. The district has a strong Democratic tilt, although Republicans occasionally win elections there and features a Democratic primary with 14 declared candidates, including former Lieutenant Governor Mazie Hirono, State Senator Matt Matsunaga, State Senator Ron Menor, State Senator Gary Hooser, State Senator Colleen Hanabusa, and State Representative Brian Schatz. Four Republicans are running for the seat, including former State Representative Quentin Kawananakoa, a descendant of the Hawaiian Royal Family, and State Senator Bob Hogue. There are also two nonpartisan candidates. Governor Linda Lingle tried unsuccessfully to bring Honolulu District Attorney Peter Carlisle into the race. Rep. Case won the 2004 election 63% to 37%. The primary is on September 23, 2006.
Idaho
- — Incumbent Butch Otter (R) is running for Governor. Though it elected a Democrat in 1990 and 1992, the district, which contains the Idaho Panhandle region and most of the Boise metropolitan area, has been reliably Republican in recent years. In the May 23 primary, hard-line conservative state Representative Bill Sali edged out a crowded field to win the Republican nomination with 26%. Attorney Larry Grant won the Democratic nomination. Sali is a controversial figure in Idaho politics who clashed repeatedly with Republican leadership in the Idaho Legislature. He also ran a lot of negative ads against his fellow Republicans to win the nomination. All this may give Grant a boost in the general election, although Sali remains favored given the GOP tilt of the area and the popular Otter at the top of the ticket. Other candidates include Constitution Party nominee Paul Smith and independent Dave Olson. A new party called the United Party [link] has also fielded a candidate, newspaper publisher and small business owner Andy Hedden-Nicely. These candidates are not expected to make a significant showing in the race.
Illinois
- — Incumbent Henry Hyde (R) is retiring after 16 terms in the House. Decorated Iraq War veteran L. Tammy Duckworth, with substantial backing from the state and national Democratic establishment, won her party's primary. State Senator Peter Roskam is running as the Republican candidate. The district contains some of the western suburbs of Chicago in DuPage and Cook counties. Democratic strength in the district has grown in recent years, but the balance still tilts to the Republicans. On 29 June 2006, the Cook Political Report called the race a "toss-up".[link]
- — Incumbent Melissa Bean (D) defeated 35-year House veteran Phil Crane 52% to 48% in 2004, and is being targeted by Republicans who hope to regain control of the seat. Her seat is Republican-leaning and includes the northern suburbs of Chicago in and around Lake County. Investment banker David McSweeney, who has been willing to spend much of his own money on the campaign, won a crowded Republican primary. This race is a top Republican priority. It has been reported a more liberal third party candidate may run and that some labor unions are withholding support from Bean, complicating her re-election chances.
- — Although reliably Republican in past elections, this district located in the northern suburbs of Chicago in coastal Cook County and Lake County, along Lake Michigan, voted for John Kerry and Barack Obama in 2004, which may make re-election a challenge for incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Democratic hopes for winning here rose after Melissa Bean's win in the nearby 8th Congressional District, which is more Republican. The Democratic candidate is GE Commercial Finance Director of Marketing Dan Seals.
- — This western Illinois district, which includes Moline, was unexpectedly vacated when longtime liberal Congressman Lane Evans announced that he would not seek reelection due to a decline in his health. The Democratic nominee is Phil Hare, a former aide to Evans. The Republican nominee, former newscaster Andrea Lane Zinga, ran against Evans in 2004 and won 39% of the vote. The district leans Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so.
Indiana
- — Chris Chocola (R) won reelection in 2004 with 54% of the vote. Chocola was first elected in 2002 by a 50-46% margin. Democrat Joe Donnelly, who lost to Chocola 54-45% in 2004, is running again in 2006. Democrats blame Donnelly's 2004 loss on a lack of funding from the national party that allowed Chocola to outspend Donnelly by a two-to-one margin. President Bush has visited the South Bend district seven times since 2000, suggesting that Republicans may be concerned that Chocola is potentially vulnerable.
- — John Hostettler (R), who has only a 34% approval rating, is being challenged by Vanderburg County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler has a history of winning tough reelections, but Ellsworth is believed to be his most popular opponent to date. In a district that usually votes Republican in national elections but frequently supports Democrats locally, Hostettler may have to moderate himself after several verbal blunders in Congress, the most infamous being a widely denounced statement that, "Like a moth to a flame the Democrats can't help themselves when it comes to denigrating and demonizing Christians." According to the Democrats, the district is very marginal.[link] The district has been nicknamed "The Bloody Eighth" due to its frequent ousting of incumbent Congressmen, including in 1958, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1982, and 1994.
- — Incumbent Mike Sodrel (R) defeated incumbent Baron Hill by only 1,425 votes in 2004. Hill has announced he hopes to reclaim his seat. He defeated anti-war challenger Gretchen Clearwater in the May 2 primary. Sodrel is a self-described staunch Republican party loyalist in an evenly divided district. Republicans point out that Hill had the advantages of incumbency in 2004 and won't this time.
Iowa
- — Incumbent Jim Nussle (R) is running for governor. His district is Democratic-leaning, and of the open seats so far is probably the most likely to change hands. It contains most of northeastern Iowa including large cities such as Dubuque, the Quad Cities and Waterloo. Wealthy businessman Mike Whalen won the Republican nomination in a mild surprise by emphasizing border security, while attorney Bruce Braley is the Democratic nominee. Democrat Bill Gluba, who ran three separate times against Nussle, lost the primary to Braley and expressed anger at his party's establishment for trying to undermine his campaign. Nussle was reelected in 2000 and 2004 with 55% of the vote but Al Gore and John Kerry won the district in those same years, signaling that the open seat will be very competitive come November 2006.
- — Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) won a close 2004 reelection in a competitive district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas. Republican state Senate President Jeff Lamberti is challenging Boswell and is well-funded. Boswell's age (70), severe health problems and his breaking a term-limit pledge, made when he first ran for office, could factor into the race.
Kansas
- — Incumbent Jim Ryun (R) won re-election by just 56% in 2004, This district is home to Topeka, Manhattan (location of Kansas State University), Leavenworth, and Pittsburg. The district can be considered swing since, before 1994, Democrats held the seat for 20 out of 24 years. Ryun also faces controversy over a house deal, in which Ed Buckham's U.S. Family Network sold the house to him at a $19,000 loss after two years of ownership, despite the fact that housing values were rising dramatically in that area. He is being challenged by Democrat Nancy Boyda.
- — Incumbent Dennis Moore (D) won a solid reelection in 2004, but this Kansas City-based district nearly ousted him in 2000 and 2002 and also voted for George W. Bush. Banker Chuck Ahner and state Representative Scott Schwab plan to challenge Moore in 2006, and with this Republican-leaning, independent-minded district, either Ahner or Schwab could pull off an upset. The primary is on August 1, 2006.
Kentucky
- — Incumbent Ron Lewis (R) is seeking a sixth full term (seventh total) in this west-central Kentucky district. This district is conservative and Lewis has had no trouble winning reelection. But when first elected, he had promised to serve only six terms. He is being challenged by state Representative Mike Weaver (politician), whose background in business and Veteran of two wars statues make it hard to portray him as a liberal. However, Weaver's fundraising has been disappointing.
- — Incumbent Anne Northup (R) is a target for the Democrats every election; in 2004 and 2000, John Kerry and Al Gore both won her congressional district by two percent. While Northup has generally run close races, she won 60% of the vote in 2004 against a highly touted opponent. Redistricting after the 2000 census added a few more Republicans to the district, according to Congressional Quarterly. The Democratic candidate this year is John Yarmuth, the founder of local free publication the LEO. Democrats claim this race is winnable, but Yarmouth's liberal views and articles give Northup plenty of material for negative ads. See the article on the district for more on the race.
- — First-term incumbent Geoff Davis (R) is being challenged by USAF Major Ken Lucas-D, who held the seat from 1999 to 2005. Lucas defeated Davis 51% to 48% in 2002, and retired in 2004, adhering to a pledge of serving only three consecutive terms in the House. Lucas was among the most conservative Democrats in Congress and remains well-known in the district. His campaign is hobbled by a late start, however.
Louisiana
The primary is on November 7, 2006.
- — Incumbent Congressman William Jefferson (D) has been under intense investigation and the FBI has claimed that it has videotaped him accepting $100,000 in bribes. The police also found money in Jefferson's freezer that was hidden amidst frozen food products. While it is virtually unlikely this district will switch to the Republican Party, there is a strong possibility of a primary race here. The seat is located in heavily Democratic New Orleans. No Republican has represented this district since reconstruction. So far, only Republican lawyer Joe Lavigne has entered the race against Jefferson.
- — In a December 2004 runoff, now-incumbent Charlie Melancon (D) squeaked into Congress by 569 votes over Billy Tauzin III, the son and namesake of his popular predecessor. His is a swing district in southeast Louisiana, which may make him vulnerable. However, Louisiana's unique open primary voting system (where everyone runs against everyone else, regardless of party affiliation, and if no one takes 50% then the top two enter a runoff) leaves everything subject to speculation. A potential wild card is the effect of comments made by House Speaker Dennis Hastert in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, in which he publicly questioned whether the federal government should rebuild much of the city of New Orleans. The backlash from his comments, and from the general perception of a less-than-effective response by the Republican administration, could benefit Democrats in the state. However, many voters (particularly African-Americans and the poor, two strongly Democratic demographics) have moved elsewhere while the cleanup commences, and it's unclear how many of them will return. Melancon is facing state Senator Craig Romero (R), who finished a close third in the 2004 open primary.
- — Incumbent Charles Boustany (R) won 55% to 45% in the December 2004 runoff, and should be a good bet for reelection in his relatively conservative Southwest Louisiana district. He got a break when Chris John, the Democrat who represented this district from 1997 until his Senate run in 2004, decided not to run again. Boustany is likely to be opposed by attorney Hunter Lundy of Lake Charles, who lost to Chris John in the 1996 runoff. However, this district was heavily damaged by Hurricane Rita, and it is not known how many voters have temporarily—or permanently —moved elsewhere.
Maryland
- Main article: Maryland Congressional election, 2006
- — Incumbent Ben Cardin (D) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes. The Democratic field is already crowded, with a number of candidates, including lawyer and retired Army officer Mishonda Baldwin, former WMAR newscaster Andy Barth, former Baltimore Health Commissioner Dr. Peter Beilenson, businessman and former Maryland Democratic Party Treasurer Oz Bengur, State Senator Paula Hollinger, lobbyist Kevin O'Keefe and Baltimore attorney John Sarbanes, son of retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes. Six Republicans have announced their intention to run; none have held elected office before. The primary is on September 12, 2006. The district consists of parts of Baltimore City as well as parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, and Howard Counties. It includes the state capital of Annapolis. This seat is expected to remain Democratic.
Michigan
The primary is August 8, 2006- — Incumbent freshman Joe Schwarz (R) won with 58% of the vote in 2004, Schwarz has been criticized by the Club for Growth, which is backing his 2004 primary opponent, former state Representative Tim Walberg, Walberg has been attacking Schwarz for his positions on abortion, gun control and border security.
- — Incumbent Mike J. Rogers (R) has a challenger for the Republican primary named Patrick Flynn who is a minister and pro-life activist. While Rogers is expected to win the primary, his likely Democratic challenger is former CIA agent James Marcinkowski who has the financial resources to mount a serious campaign. Marcinkowski's primary opponent is Eric Crosley.
- — Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) did not have a great campaign in 2004. Though he won with 58% of the vote, this was only after he outspent his opponent (attorney Steve Reifman) by an over-10-to-1 ratio. For a 7-term incumbent, this is less than spectacular. Also, the fact that Bush barely won his district with 50% of the vote shows that it is no longer a Republican stronghold. Knollenberg is potentially vulnerable this year. First, he faces a respectable primary opponent in Oakland County School Board member Patricia Godchaux, a moderate ex-state Representative who is accusing Knollenberg of being ineffective. Radio talk host Nancy Skinner (on Air America Radio affiliate WDTW) is the Democratic challenger. Skinner has raised a considerable amount of money compared to the other candidates in this race. She has been endorsed by the UAW, AFL-CIO and NOW. Skinner had previously lived in Illinois and graciously conceded to Barack Obama in the Illinois State Senate primary.
Minnesota
The primary is September 12, 2006.
- — Incumbent John Kline (R) was reelected in 2004 due to the collapse of his challenger's campaign, winning by a margin of 57% to 40%. Things were expected to be very different in 2006. whistleblower and Former FBI Agent Coleen Rowley, who accused the bureau of mishandling pre-9/11 intelligence, is running as a Democrat, and her presence initially garnered media attention. The 2nd district, south of the Twin Cities, leans Republican but is not out of reach for a Democrat (it was held by Democrat Bill Luther from 1995 until redistricting caused his defeat by Kline in 2002). However, Rowley's credibility was damaged when her campaign website showed an image of Kline's face imposed on Colonel Klink from Hogan's Heroes. After widespread criticism, she publicly apologized. Partly as a result, Republicans are becoming more confident about this race.
- — Incumbent Martin Sabo (D) is retiring after 26 years in the House. He won reelection with 70% of the vote in 2004 in a district that went for John Kerry by 71%. It is strongly Democratic and no one expects it to change hands. The state Democratic Party has endorsed state Representative Keith Ellison, while Sabo has endorsed his Chief of Staff, Mike Erlandson. Incidentally, Ellison is a Muslim and if elected, would be the first Muslim to serve in Congress. While the Republicans have said they will contest the seat by running a "fun, spirited campaign", they have openly admitted doubts that they will capture it in the Democratic stronghold of Minneapolis.[link]
- — Incumbent Mark Kennedy (R) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. The sixth district is located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis and extending northwest to St. Cloud. The Independence Party of Minnesota candidate for the House seat is student and political newcomer John Binkowski, a longtime resident of St. Mary's Point. The Republican nominee for the House seat is State Senator Michele Bachmann, an outspoken social conservative. Patty Wetterling, who mustered 46% against Kennedy as the Democratic candidate in 2004, is the Democratic nominee again. She originally stated her intent to make a second try for the House seat; then campaigned for the United States Senate instead; upon abruptly dropping out of the Senate race, she re-launched a second campaign for the Sixth District House seat. At the party's nominating convention she defeated former Blaine mayor Elwyn Tinklenberg who is also a former minister opposed to abortion and gun control. Tinklenberg had entered the race only after receiving Wetterling's assurance that she would not be running, and he was supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which considered him to be more electable due to his moderate views. Now the liberal Watterling has to win over Tinklenberg's former supporters, some of whom are angry about her going back on her word. The northern Twin Cities suburbs that dominate the Sixth District are understood to have been the politically quirky heart of Jesse Ventura's success at the expense of the two major parties. This district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.
- — Sixteen Term Incumbent Jim Oberstar (D) has had little trouble for re-election ever since he's won his first term, and while the district has been relatively safe and hasn't had a Republican represent it since 1947, Oberstar faces a potential challenge from former Republican U.S. Senator Rod Grams.
Mississippi
- — Incumbent Bennie Thompson (D) successfully faced an aggressive primary challenge from state Representative Chuck Espy, nephew of former Congressman and Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy, and won with 65% of the vote. In the general election, he is being challenged by Republican Tchula [link] Mayor Yvonne Brown. Both Espy and Brown have criticized Thompson for leaving the House Agriculture Committee. The district is over three-fifths African-American and solidly Democratic, though Republicans occasionally win local elections in the area.
Montana
- – Although incumbent Dennis Rehberg (R) won with 64% of the vote in 2004 and is generally popular, he is considered to be potentially vulnerable due to Montana having swung over to the Democratic Party in 2004, electing Brian Schweitzer as Governor as well handing control of the State Legislature over to the Democrats. Rehberg also has to contend with the fact that Republican Senator Conrad Burns is facing an extremely tough re-election race. Rehberg's November opponent will be respectably-funded State Representative Monica Lindeen. Libertarian Mike Fellows has also qualified.
Nebraska
- — Republican incumbent Jeff Fortenberry won his first term in 2004 with 54% of the vote in the wake of the retirement of moderate and popular Republican congressman Doug Bereuter who was very critical of the religious right's growing influence on the party. Fortenberry is much more conservative than his predecessor, echoed by the fact that he won a relatively small margin of victory in a district that previously sent Bereuter to Congress by margins of 60%–65% and reelected George W. Bush by 66% in 2004. A Green Party activist drew away a full 3% of the vote last time, and Democrats are mobilizing for another campaign. Democrat and former Nebraska Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul filed papers in January 2006 and will face Fortenberry in November.[swingstateproject.com]
- — Republican incumbent Tom Osborne did not seek re-election, running instead for the Nebraka gubernatorial nomination (he lost). His district, covering western Nebraska, is strongly Republican. Nebraska legislator Adrian Smith won the Republican nomination; he will face off in November against the Democratic candidate, rancher Scott Kleeb.
Nevada
- — Incumbent Jim Gibbons (R) is running for governor. In 2004 he was reelected with 67% of the vote. His wife, state Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons, is running for his seat, as is Secretary of State Dean Heller and conservative state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada, is solidly Republican (since its creation in 1983 it has never elected a Democrat to represent it). Even so, in national elections the district tends to vote for the party that is favored by the national political climate, which is trending Democratic thus far. In addition, Democratic candidate Jill Derby of northern Nevada, who has served on the University Board of Regents, has the advantage of running unopposed, while the three Republicans are engaged in a very competitive primary that will force them to spend money. Recent polling done by Research 2000 for the Reno Gazette-Journal and News 4 has shown the race to be competitive. One matchup, between Dawn Gibbons (R) and Jill Derby (D) showed Gibbons with 35% and Derby with 30%. [link]
- — Since the creation of the district in 2002, incumbent Jon Porter (R) has won both elections by comfortable margins. However, this district is almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, and Porter has drawn the ire of Senator Harry Reid. Reid's former press secretary Tessa Hafen, backed by her ex-boss, is challenging Porter. Other Democrats in the August 15 primary are Mark Budetich, Anna Nevenich, Freddie Warman and chiropractor Barry Michaels. The November ballot will also include Libertarian Joseph P. Silvestri and Independent American Joshua Hansen.
New Hampshire
The primary is on September 12, 2006.
- — Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley is seeking a third term. He cannot plausibly be attacked as a conservative Bush clone, but Democrats are targeting him for defeat anyway. Democrats running against him include state House Minority Leader Jim Craig, state Representative and Army Veteran Peter Sullivan, and Rye School Board member Gary Dodds. George W. Bush is highly unpopular throughout New England, giving Democrats an opening. This was the one house district in New England Bush carried in 2004, however.
- — Incumbent Charles Bass (R) is in a state that is trending towards the Democratic Party, in the 2004 Presidential race the Democrats managed to win New Hampshire's electoral votes as well as unexpectedly capture the Governor's Mansion. Bass remains popular, however, winning reelection in 2004 with 58% percent of the vote while his district was won by John Kerry 52% to 47%. Bass is a self-described political moderate, and is being challenged in the primary by Berlin Mayor Bob Danderson, who stands out in contrast to some of Bass's more liberal views, such as opposition to drilling for oil in ANWR. The likely Democratic nominee is the 2004 challenger Paul Hodes, an attorney. A UNH poll from May 4, 2006 shows Hodes a lot closer to Bass than expected, 35% to Bass' 42%.
New Jersey
- — Jim Saxton (R) won with 63% of the vote in 2004 in a district that Bush carried with only 51% of the vote. Democrats thought in 2000 they had a tough opponent for Saxton in Cherry Hill (the district's largest community) Mayor Susan Bass Levin who raised and spent substantially, but Saxton won by 58% Some liberals think he has never faced any strong competition, and also consider his views ultra-conservative (while they are typical of House Republicans) and believe the district is trending Democratic, therefore, by their measure he potentially could have a tough time being re-elected. Republicans are more sanguine as to his chances, as Ocean County was carried handily by Bush and losing GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Forrester. The district runs from the central shore of New Jersey through Burlington County and into the Philadelphia suburbs. Running on the Democratic side is Rich Sexton, an Attorney, a 20 Year Veteran and Officer in the Navy, and a Fighting Dem.
- — Scott Garrett (R) won with 58% of the vote against an underfunded Anne Wolfe in 2004 in what is normally a Republican district. His strongly conservative views have also been the subject of some controversy. Garret was one of only a few Republicans to vote against the emergency aid to Hurricane Katrina victims. Democrat Paul Aronsohn is planning to challenge Garrett and with more support from the Democrats as well as several towns within the district won by Corzine in the governor's race, this could be a pickup opportunity. Garrett is likely also to face questions about why he opposed renewing the Voting Rights Act.
- — Mike Ferguson (R) won with 57% of the vote in the 2004 election against Stephen Brozak. His recent perceived opposition to the "morning after pill" may become an issue for him in a district thst is supportive of social moderates like Thomas Kean, Jr., a local state senator. This district voted for Bush by 1 point in 2000 and 6 points in 2004, however. State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) will face Ferguson in 2006.
- — Incumbent Bob Menendez (D) was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor-elect Jon Corzine, leaving his House seat vacant. The district, situated between New York City and Newark and includes Bayonne, Jersey City, West New York, and Hoboken, is heavily Democratic. State Assembly Speaker Albio Sires easily won the Democratic primary and faces Republican community activist John Guarini in the general election. Ironically, Sires started his political career as a Republican and protoge of former Governor Thomas Kean, while Guarini is the son of former Democratic Congressman Frank Guarini, Menendez's predecessor in Congress. Sires has said that he would be willing to consider drilling in the ANWR to help reduce oil and gasoline prices.
New Mexico
- — Incumbent Heather Wilson (R) has routinely managed difficult reelections since 1998, winning in 2004 by a 55% to 45% margin. But in 2006 she will face Democrat Patricia Madrid, New Mexico's Attorney General, who is barred from seeking a third term in that position. Madrid will undoubtedly be a stronger and more recognized candidate than previous challengers to Wilson and is also well-funded. The district, centered in Albuquerque, is very competitive; it was narrowly won by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.
New York
The primary is on September 12, 2006.
- — Incumbent Peter King (R) was elected for his sixth term by a healthy margin in 2004, 63% to 37%, however King is the only Republican congressman left on Long Island, where Republicans once were the majority party. Although King has broken with his party on a few key issues, he is potentially vulnerable in a district that is increasingly moderate to liberal. Nassau County Legislator David Mejias announced his candidacy on May 25 [link] and will be King's strongest opponent in years.
- — Incumbent Major Owens (D) is retiring after 12 terms. In 2004 Owens was reelected with a staggering 94% of the vote. His seat should remain Democratic, as it is a heavily African-American one in heavily Democratic New York City in the center of Brooklyn. His son Chris Owens is seeking the seat, but so are state Assemblyman Nick Perry, state Senator Carl Andrews, and New York City Councilwoman Yvette Clarke and New York City Councilman David Yassky. A New York Times article suggests that there may be racial issues behind this campaign [link].
- - Since easily winning a special election in 1997, Republican incumbent Vito Fossella had long been reelected without trouble in this district, based in Staten Island and the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn. But in 2004, his share of the vote dropped dramatically against an underfunded opponent. This caught the attention of Democrats, who are now making this race a priority. Lawyer and Bay Ridge community leader Steve Harrison [link] is the Democratic candidate. A recent New York Daily Newsweeklong expose on alleged Fossella campaign finance and constituent mailing rule violations should help Harrison in what has long been a Republican stronghold despite having more registered Democrats than Republicans. However, a healthy percentage of the Democrats are Democrats in Name Only (DINOS), who almost always vote Republican, which is why Fossella continues to be elected. He is the only Republican in New York City's Congressional delegation.
- - Incumbent Sue Kelly (R) has rarely faced stiff competition since her initial election in 1994, but she has drawn six Democratic challengers this year. They include ex-Republican Judith Aydelott, former Orleans singer/songwriter John Hall, Yorktown councilman Jim Martorano, fundraiser/consultant Darren Rigger, Ben Shuldiner (2005's Jefferson Award recipient as the Greatest Public Servant in America under the age of 35), and high school principal Gary Suraci. The 19th is an increasingly-Democratic distict, and Democrats were extremely successful in town and county election in November 2005. Bush did narrowly carry the district in 2004, however. As of the last FEC filing, Aydelott was the leading fundraiser with Shuldiner in second. In May and June, the Democratic party in each of the five counties that have segments within the district held nominating conventions. Hall won his home county (Dutchess) as well as Orange and Rockland, while Rigger won the Putnam nomination and Martorano took the Westchester nod. As a result, there remains no clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
- — Incumbent John E. Sweeney (R) has never really had any election troubles up until now. Sweeney has faced controversy over his reportedly drunken appearance at a registered party at a fraternity at Union College on April 22, 2006; over a remark he made about his Democratic opponent, Kirsten Gillibrand, saying that she was "a pretty face"; and over a January 2006 all-expenses paid weekend with family, friends, staff, and lobbyists at Lake Placid, New York. This rural and suburban district is among the more Republican in the Northeast, however, and Sweeney is not a strong conservative. A June Zogby poll published in the Albany Times-Union showed Sweeney holding a 51% to 27% lead over Gillibrand. Libertarian Eric Sundwall and Liberal Party candidate Morris Guller are also challenging Sweeney. (For more details, see New York 20th congressional district election, 2006)
- — Incumbent Michael R. McNulty (D) was elected for his ninth term in 2004 over Republican challenger Warren Redlich. Redlich is running again in 2006, after getting 5 points more than the last 7 challengers (30% instead of 25%) with little money. While the district is majority Democrat, Republicans have been known to do well here in other races. Redlich's campaign theme is "Stop Wasting Money", and is critical of not only Democrats like McNulty, but also of Republicans including Bush and Pataki for their spending. With many libertarian ties, Redlich has been endorsed by the Republican Liberty Caucus and the Libertarian Party.
- — Incumbent Sherwood Boehlert (R) has announced his retirement after twenty-four years, making this a seat of considerable focus for the democrats in the follow up to the mid terms. Boehlert is considered a moderate republican, and the district is considered to be a swing district. George Bush won this district by 53% in the 2004 election, but by 3,000 votes, in the 2000 presidential election. The likely Republican nominee will be state Senator Ray Meier, while the likely Democratic nominee will be Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri, but both face primary opponents. [link]
- — Incumbent James T. Walsh (R), ran unopposed in 2004 and while the Syracuse-based district hasn't had a Democrat represent it since 1971, John Kerry won the district in 2004 by 2.5% points. Thus, Walsh had the dubious distinction of being the only Republican to win unopposed and not have George W. Bush win his district. Democrats are fielding at least two candidates in the Sept. 12 primary: former congressional aide Dan Maffei and lawyer Paloma Capanna.
- — Incumbent Tom Reynolds (R), the National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman, faces a rematch with local industrialist and VeteranJack Davis in the 26th District. While the district leans substantially Republican, Reynolds was held to 55% of the vote in 2004 by political neophyte Davis who has used the intervening time to build a political base. He will campaign on Reynolds' support of free-trade which he claims has cost the district thousands of well-paying jobs. Reynolds is one of the Republican party's premiere fund-raisers and Davis is independently wealthy promising that this will be an expensive campaign
- — Freshman incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) Kuhl was elected with 50% in a three way race in 2004. He faces a potentially strong challenge from former Navy Officer Eric Massa who is a long-time friend of 2004 presidential candidate Gen. Wesley Clark. Massa has been an extremely adept fundraiser and has become a darling of the netroots with numerous favorable articles on popular progressive weblogs such as dailykos.com and mydd.com. In March, President Bush visited the district, in part as a boost to Kuhl's re-election campaign.
North Carolina
- — Robin Hayes (R) was elected for a fourth term in 2004 by a 56% to 44% vote. His opponent, Beth Troutman, was a production assistant on the TV show The West Wing with no prior experience in office and with only a tiny fraction of the funding Hayes had. For a three-term Republican incumbent with substantial funding, in a Republican-leaning district against such an opponent, 56% is a less than spectacular margin. The district consists of a large portion of southern North Carolina east of Charlotte. Democrats have made an issue of Hayes' vote in favor of CAFTA, which could severely hurt textile jobs in his district. Hayes' vote came after his stating he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed" to the bill and pressure by the Bush administration. Hayes also received the second largest amount of money among all Congressional candidates from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Hayes has refused to return the $47,000 he received from the former House Majority Leader's political action committee, despite calls from Democrats to do so. He faces Larry Kissell, a school teacher from Biscoe, NC, who is running a largely grassroots campaign
- — Charles H. Taylor (R) won with 55% in 2004, far behind George W. Bush in the area. His district consists of the North Carolina Panhandle around Asheville. He will face tougher competition from former professional quarterback Heath Shuler (D) in 2006. So far things are not looking good for Taylor, with Shuler outraising him by over a hundred thousands of dollars so far and Taylor's been dogged by ethical scandals in his fundraising team. Recent reports have also implicated Taylor in the Jack Abramoff Indian lobbying scandal. A July 10 poll by Public Policy Polling shows tha Schuler leads Taylor by 51% to 45% [link]. However, Taylor is one of the wealthier members of Congress and can tap into his own funds if necessary.[hillnews.com]. Shuler though is also independently wealthy after saving most of the money he earned as a Washington Redskin, and doing well in the real estate business.
North Dakota
- — Incumbent Earl Pomeroy (D) has won reelection by varying margins against widely differing opponents since his first election in 1992. In 2002, he had his toughest race ever, winning by winning by 52% to 48% against then-state Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh who is now an Associate Justice on the North Dakota Supreme Court. In 2004, he was reelected with little trouble. This year, he will be challenged by farmer Matt Mechtela, a former President of the North Dakota Soybean Council. Pomeroy is favored to win again, though he is not assured of reelection.
Ohio
- — Incumbent Steve Chabot (R) was part of 1994's Republican Revolution, when he unseated an incumbent. He is being challenged by Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley, who challenged him in 2000. The first district, which takes in most of Cincinnati, is marginal and has elected both Democrats and Republicans in the past.
- — Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R) was elected by special election to replace the seat vacated by Congressman Rob Portman. She narrowly defeated Democrat Paul Hackett in a largely Republican district. Recent June 2006 polling conducted by Momentum Analysis shows Congresswoman Schmidt tied at 44% with Democratic challenger Dr. Victoria Wulsin. The same poll also showed Wulsin leading Schmidt in Hamilton County, the largest county of the district, by a margin of 50% to 37%. Many have stated that this polling is a surprise but could be the result of press coverage regarding Congresswoman Schmidt's November 2005 House floor remarks about Congressman John Murtha (D-PA).
- — Incumbent Michael Oxley (R) is retiring after twenty-five years. The district is located in much of northwestern Ohio and is heavily Republican, having not elected a Democrat to represent the area since 1936. Republican state Senator James D. "Jim" Jordan won the primary comfortably and is the overwhelming favorite in the general election against his poorly-financed Democratic opponent, local attorney Richard E. Siferd.
- — Incumbent Ted Strickland (D) did not run for reelection; he is the Democratic nomineee for Governor of Ohio. The district, stretching across Ohio's eastern edge, from the Kentucky border to the Pennsylvania border, is marginal and should be highly competitive. Both parties' choices have been damaged by self-inflicted blunders. Republican state House Speaker Pro Tempore Chuck Blasdel failed to pay property taxes on two defunct businesses he once owned, while Democratic state Senator Charlie Wilson was embarrassed after failing to submit the 50 valid signatures for his ballot petition, and had to wage a costly write-in campaign to be his party's nominee.[enquirer.com] But Wilson made a major comeback when his write-in campaign earned him 67% of the vote in the primary. Bladsel won 49% in a three-way primary. Wilson is now the front-runner in the general election, though not a shoo-in.
- — Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) did not run for reelection; he is the Democratic nomineee against incumbent Republican Senator Mike DeWine. Brown's district, in the Lorain/Akron area, is heavily blue-collar and has a strong pro-labor Democratic tilt. However, Republicans appear to have scored a recruiting coup with the candidacy of Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin, a popular figure in a city that gave George W. Bush only 27% of the vote. Normally, Democrats would have very little trouble holding this district. But Foltin's personal base in a Democratic stronghold gives Republicans a glimmer of hope. Republican hopes stemmed in part on dividing the Democratic vote by getting an Independent candidate, Tracy Kennedy, to run. The Republican Chairman for the city of Lorain, David Arredondo, circulated petitions to get her on the ballot. Local Republicans are hoping on capitalizing on the popularity of Foltin in Lorain and their attempt to split the Democratic vote with the introduction of an independent candidate. Former state Representative Betty Sutton is the Democratic nominee and while she generates little excitement, she is a very viable contender. However, she won only after a very nasty multi-candidate primary and one of her defeated opponents, former Congressman Tom Sawyer, has not only refused to endorse her but filed a campaign finance violation complaint with the Federal Election Commission.
- — This district takes in much of Columbus, and Deborah Pryce (R), Chair of the Congressional Republican Conference, has been reelected without incident for over a decade. But the toxic unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft and perhaps Pryce's close ties to the Republican leadership give Democrats a potential opening. She is being challenged by Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, possibly her strongest opponent to date.
- — Although incumbent Robert W. Ney (R) has continuously won this district since 1994, he has a less than stellar ethics record, having admitted involvement with the Jack Abramoff's scandal and has been identified as the unnamed representative implicated by Abramoff's plea bargain. Ney and two of his staff have been subpoenaed, and several senior staff have quit. Zack Space, a popular figure from Dover was a surprise winner for the Democratic nomination. Located in southeastern Ohio and including St. Clairsville and Zanesville, this district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. Currently, Space leads Ney by a small margin.
Oklahoma
- Oklahoma's 5th District — Incumbent Ernest Istook (R) is retiring to run for governor against the incumbent Democrat Brad Henry. This solidly Republican, very conservative district includes Oklahoma, Pottawatomie, and Seminole Counties in central Oklahoma, and is demographically dominated by Oklahoma City. Republicans running include Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin, state Corporation Commissioner Denise Bode, Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, state Representative Fred Morgan, state Representative Kevin Calvey, and Edmond surgeon Dr. Johnny Roy. Running on the Democratic side are Oklahoma City physician Dr. David Hunter and an Oklahoma City teacher, Bert Smith. Independent candidate Matthew Horton Woodson is also on the ballot. The primary is July 25, 2006, with a runoff, if needed, on August 22, 2006.
Oregon
- — Incumbent Darlene Hooley (D) for the most part has faced easy re-election every single time. In the 2004 election, Hooley won with just 53% of the vote in a district that was narrowly won by President George W. Bush by 1%. Hooley faces Republican Mike Erickson. The district spans Salem and parts of Corvallis and Portland. This is considered a swing district.
Pennsylvania
- — Jim Gerlach (R) won reelection by a 51% to 49% margin in 2004 and represents a very competitive district in suburban Philadelphia. Lois Murphy, who was narrowly defeated by him in 2004, is running again. Gerlach also faces questions concerning over $30,000 he has received for his campaigns from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, which has been involved in an alleged money laundering scheme. Democrats have criticized Gerlach for not returning the disputed money or donating it to charity, although he has stated that he would give the money away if DeLay is convicted. In July Gerlach opened his media campaign with a TV ad criticising President Bush's immigration proposals.
- — Curt Weldon (R) won reelection with 59% of the vote in 2004, but represents a Democratic-leaning district that incorporates much of Democratic-leaning Delaware County in suburban Philadelphia. He is facing retired 3-Star Navy Admiral Joe Sestak(D). Weldon caused controversy while campaigning when he questioned Sestak's dedication to living in the district because his family lives in the Washington suburbs and he did not send his daughter to a Pennsylvania hospital for clinical treatment. Sestak denounced Weldon for his statement in light of the fact that his four-year-old daughter is suffering from a malignant brain tumor and even Weldon's fellow Republicans were embarrassed by his remarks.[link] Sestak has also proven to be a capable fundraiser.
- — Mike Fitzpatrick (R) won in 2004, but his district, based in suburban Bucks County, is considered politically moderate. In 2004 he defeated Democrat Virginia "Ginny" Schrader by a margin of 56% to 42%. Fitzpatrick's views, especially on abortion, are more conservative than those of most people in the Philadelphia suburbs, and that may be an issue for him in 2006. Iraq War Veteran (82nd Airborne Division) Patrick Murphy won the Democratic primary in May and is already getting more support from the national Democratic Party than Schrader did in 2004.
- — Don Sherwood (R) has strong backing as a result of redistricting, and he won reelection without opposition in 2002 and 2004, but recently was involved in an affair and physical abuse scandal with Cynthia Ore which brought on a $5.5 million lawsuit. On November 8, 2005 the two settled out of court for an undisclosed amount. He was expected to win the Republican primary easily over teacher Kathy Scott, as she had very little money or campaign staff, but she polled a surprising 44% of the vote against him. His critics claim this is proof of weakness and that professor and Naval Reserve Officer Chris Carney, his Democratic opponent, has a shot at winning in November.
- - For many years, Democrat John Murtha has won reelection easily. But his condemnation of George W. Bush's conduct of the Iraq War and his warrior background have made him a Republican target. The southwestern Pennsylvania district has voted Republican in some elections. He faces Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey. In 2004 he was unopposed, but in 2002 he won 73% of the vote. Rural southwestern Pennsylvania is one part of the state which is trending Republican and where incumbent Governor Ed Rendell is not very popular, providing a possible opening.
- — Allyson Schwartz (D) is a freshman Congressman, and won her first election with 56% of the vote. Former Apprentice contestant Raj Bhakta will be her opponent, adding a hint of celebrity to the race. However, Schwartz's fundraising prowess — she raised more money in the 2004 cycle than all but four candidates, including incumbents — may ward off serious opposition. Bhakta is pushing a serious grassroots campaign in the district that may make this race much closer than it appears.
South Carolina
- — John Spratt (D) is a twelve-term Democrat in an increasingly Republican district. George W. Bush increased his margin of victory in 2004 in the district from 55% to 57%, and Spratt in the past is known to have felt the heat of some very close races (52% in 1994, 56% in 1996). However, of late, he has only faced marginal Republican opposition. This year he is facing popular conservative state Representative Ralph Norman. Norman has been successful in fundraising and will mount a full scale campaign in the Autumn.
Tennessee
The primary is on August 3, 2006.
- — Incumbent Bill Jenkins (R) is retiring after 5 terms in office. The district, located in eastern Tennessee, is considered to be a very safe Republican seat considering that George W. Bush won 68% of the vote in 2004 and that it has been held by a Republican (except for two terms in the 1870s) since in the 1860s. Several Republicans have officially announced that they are seeking to replace Jenkins: Family Nurse Practitioner, Peggy Parker Barnett, State Representative David Davis of Johnson City, Sevier County Mayor Larry Waters (R), former Johnson City Mayor Vance Cheek [link], and Sullivan County Mayor Richard Venable.[timesnews.net]
- — Incumbent Harold Ford Jr. (D) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Republican Bill Frist. Though he may face an uphill battle in that race, whichever Democrat chooses to run for his House seat should have little trouble, as the 9th is based in the Democratic stronghold of Memphis.
Texas
- — Incumbent Ted Poe (R) unseated Democrat Nick Lampson in 2004 after heavy redistricting changed the political landscape; Poe won with 55% of the vote. His opponent in November will be underfunded Democrat Gary Binderim, a water utility manager and community activist, who is making an issue of Poe's party-line votes (calculated to have lined up with Republican leadership 96% of the time), as well as Poe's refusal to return thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Nevertheless, CQPolitics rates this seat as "Safe Republican." George W. Bush received 63% of the vote in the district in both 2000 and 2004. [link] Libertarian Justo Perez also qualified for the November ballot.
- — Incumbent Chet Edwards (D) won reelection by a 51% to 48% margin in 2004 after the 2003 Texas redistricting changed his exurban Central Texas district substantially and made it more Republican. He won despite the fact that Bush won the district by a whopping 40% margin. His district includes Waco and Crawford, the location of George W. Bush's ranch. In 2004, Edwards was helped by the fact that his opponent, then-state Representative Arlene Wohlgemuth, was nominated only after a nasty, expensive primary. In 2006, he is being challenged by Van Taylor, an attorney and Iraq War veteran from a locally prominent family.
- — Retiring Incumbent Tom DeLay (R) had been facing mounting ethical challenges and corruption charges through 2005 and early 2006. He won reelection by a surprisingly small 55% to 41% margin in 2004, even though George W. Bush carried the suburban Houston district with 64% of the vote. On September 28, 2005, DeLay was indicted by a grand jury in Travis County, Texas. On March 7, 2006, Delay won a 4-way Republican primary for his district with only 62% of the vote. As a result of these challenges, he felt forced to step down from his post as House Majority Leader. In announcing his plans to resign and abandon reelection, Delay noted his poor poll showing and the constant criticisms he was expecting. As Texas law generally prohibits replacement of a party nominee who withdraws but permits replacement of one who is ineligible, Delay announced that he was moving to Virginia to make himself ineligible for reelection. "Those polls showed him beating Democrat Nick Lampson in the general election but in a race that would be too close for comfort," DeLay said. [link] [link].The Republican hold on district will face a strong challenge from former Rep. Nick Lampson, a Democrat whose district was dismantled during the 2003 mid-decade redistricting engineered by DeLay. Lampson's former district contained much of the eastern area of DeLay's present district. Former Rep. Steve Stockman, a conservative Republican, is also running for the seat as an independent. The Republican nominee to replace DeLay will be decided at a future date unless a Democratic legal challenge currently before a Federal court prevents DeLay's replacement. On June 9, 2006, DeLay officially resigned, vacating the district's House seat; a special election is possible, but the Governor Rick Perry appears to be planning to leave the seat vacant until the general election. On July 5, a federal judge blocked DeLay's removal from the November ballot, but that decision will be appealed to a higher court.
Utah
- - Although incumbent Jim Matheson (D) won re-election in 2004 by a margin of 13%, his district is in a heavily Republican state. The district includes some Democratic areas in Utah, such has the wealthy California transplant filled Summit County [[Citing sources citation needed]], the liberal communities of Grand County, the large Greek communities of Carbon County, the Navajos of San Juan County, and heavily Democratic Salt Lake City. Matheson is a regular target of the GOP every election. State Representative LaVar Christensen (R) of Draper, a small affluent suburb of Salt Lake City, is running in the district. However, the most circulated daily newspaper in Utah, The Salt Lake Tribune, has characterized him as too extreme for the area. For example Christensen was one of two major sponsors of a bill that amended Utah's Constitution to ban same-sex marriage, the amendment was rejected by two-thirds of Summit County, half of Grand County, and only passed by 4% in Salt Lake County, while the state as a whole averaged 66%, with the most supportive areas to banning such marriages being located in the first and third district, not the second. Matheson has approval ratings in the high 70s, the highest for any elected official in Utah.
- - Congressman Chris Cannon has represented this district for ten years, but found himself in a competitive primary, just as he had in 2004. In a campaign that focused almost exclusively on the immigration issue, Businessman John Jacob repeatedly attacked Cannon for his support for a guest worker program. In May 2006, at the state GOP convention, Jacob surprised Cannon by winning 52 percent of the delegate ballots. "Cannon’s 48 percent showing was especially poor, given that the ballots were cast mainly by the party insiders who dominate such conventions. (A Jacob victory with 60 percent would have denied Cannon the opportunity to wage a primary campaign.)" [link]. The Republican primary was held on June 27, 2006. While polls showed a close race [link], in the June Republican primary, Cannon received 32,306 votes (55.8%) and Jacob received 25,589 votes (44.2%). Cannon will face Democrat Christian Burridge, a lawyer, in November.
Vermont
- — Incumbent Bernie Sanders (I), a self-described socialist who represents the entire state of Vermont, plans to run for the Senate seat being vacated by fellow Independent Jim Jeffords. Vermont state Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Welch (D-Windsor County), the expected Democratic nominee, will face the winner of the Republican primary on September 12, 2006). Former Vermont Adjutant General Martha Rainville, Major General, USANG (ret); Vermont State Senator Mark Shepard, (R-Bennington County); and Dennis Morrisseau, a retired businessman, are running for the Republican nomination. Welch was helped when state Representative David Zuckerman decided not to wage a third-party campaign. Keith Stern, a businessman and zoning board member from Springfield, is running as an Independent.
Virginia
- — In 2004, after representative Ed Schrock withdrew from seeking a third term, then-state Delegate Thelma Drake (R) replaced him on the Republican ballot and was elected 55% to 45% against attorney and Marine Corps reservist David Ashe. Virginia Beach Commissioner of the Revenue Phillip Kellam has filed papers to run. Kellam is arguably Virginia Beach's most popular Democrat, and could quickly put this seat into play. Kellam's support from controversial TV ads aired by Moveon.org have been met by editorial criticism from local newspapers, however.[link] (For more details see Virginia's 2nd congressional district election, 2006)
Washington
- — This district is at the eastern edge of the Seattle metropolitan area. Incumbent Dave Reichert (R) won it 52% to 46% in 2004. Former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D) is challenging him in 2006.
West Virginia
- — For many years, Congressman Alan Mollohan (D) has won reelection without any difficulty, and often without major party opposition. But this year, he's come under scrutiny after it was revealed that non-profit groups who received federal earmarks sponsered by him were staffed by friends and that he may have financially benefitted from some of the earmarks. The national media has pointed out that his net worth expanded from some $630,000 to several million in a few years and his opponents are charging conflict of interest. The bad press caused his fellow Democrats to compel him to resign his position as ranking Democrat on the House Ethics Committee. He has a credible opponent in state Delegate Chris Wakim, a tavern owner and Persian Gulf War veteran.
- — Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R) has been a popular vote getter in this Charleston based district, but in traditionally Democratic West Virginia, a Republican can't take reelection for granted. In fact, her margin in 2004 slipped somewhat against a second-tier opponent. This year she faces attorney Mike Callaghan, a former state Democratic Party Chairman. Capito is well funded and popular, but with Bush's popularity not high, she can't take anything for granted.
Wisconsin
The primary is on September 12, 2006
- — This district, in southern and western Wisconsin, includes some conservative-leaning rural areas, for whom corn is a pivotal campaign issue. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) won the 2004 election by an uncomfortably modest margin of 56% to 44% against State Senator and former real estate agent Dale Schultz, as the state picked John Kerry for President. The western edge of the district is rapidly gaining population in the form of exurbs spilling over from the Twin Cities, Minnesota area. Fast-growing exurban areas are notorious for trending Republican. Kind faces a minor primary challenge from Iraq war opponent Chip DeNure. The November ballot will pit Kind against Republican Paul Nelson.
Wyoming
- — Barbara Cubin (R) is running for reelection. Wyoming, generally considered one of the strongest, if not the strongest, Republican stronghold in the country, gave her a surprisingly small margin of victory in 2004 with 55% of the vote, despite George W. Bush winning Wyoming by a landslide 69% in the 2004 Presidential Election. She also had a difficult primary that year. Her Democratic opponent this year will be Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner. His campaign was helped when a May 8 poll by Rasmussen Reports showed Cubin leading Trauner by only 47% to 43%, closer than even Democrats had expected. And the poll is hard to attack as it also shows Senator Craig Thomas leading his Democratic opponent by 64% to 25%. Popular Democratic incumbent Governor Dave Freudenthal is also up for reelection, though it is not known what kind of effect there will be on the state's sole Congressional election.
References
See also
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