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United States presidential election, 2008

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 This article or section contains information about an upcoming or ongoing election.
Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds.

Presidential electoral votes by state, assuming no new states enter the Union
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Presidential electoral votes by state, assuming no new states enter the Union

The United States Presidential election of 2008 is scheduled to occur on November 4, 2008. The election will determine the 44th President of the United States (assuming President Bush completes his second term). Presuming there are no changes in U.S. election law, the winner will be whichever candidate receives a majority of votes in the U.S. Electoral College. Presuming that no additional states enter the Union before that time, a majority would be at least 270 Electoral College votes. If no candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College then the election is determined by a vote of the House of Representatives. As in the 2004 Presidential election the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be based on the 2000 Census. The winner will be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.

Contents

Incumbents

In 2008, President George W. Bush will be prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the U.S. Constitution. In the three most recent eight-year administrations, the incumbent Vice President has subsequently run for President:

However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President, a statement he reiterated as recently as 2004: while appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... 'If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve,' or not only 'No,' but 'Hell, no'. I've got my plans laid out. I'm going to serve this President for the next four years and then I'm out of here." Cheney is known not to be in particularly good health: a former heavy smoker, he has had four heart attacks and repeated surgery on his heart and circulatory system, and he has persistent atherosclerotic disease.

There is some speculation that Cheney may retire as Vice President after the 2006 midterm elections. [link]. If this were to happen, his successor would be the obvious frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2008.

The 2008 race will be a non-incumbent or "open seat" election in which a sitting President is not a candidate. Assuming Cheney serves his full term and does not run, the 2008 race will be the first time since 1928 that neither the sitting President nor the sitting Vice President has run for President. (Note that while the 1952 general election between Dwight D. Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson also did not include a sitting President or Vice President, sitting Vice President Alben Barkley had unsuccessfully campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination, and President Harry Truman stood for the Democratic nomination in the New Hampshire primary.)

Should Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (who has also denied any desire to seek the presidency, though she is the current frontrunner in some public opinion polls) receive the Republican Party's nomination in 2008, she would revive an old practice that was the norm for the first fifty years of United States history. In early tradition, the Secretary of State post was traditionally the stepping stone to the Presidency. Many Commanders in Chief of the late 18th and early 19th centuries held Dr. Rice's current post before being elected, including Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, and James Buchanan. The Secretary of State post remains the primary Cabinet-level office to succeed the Chief Executive in the presidential line of succession.

Frontrunners

Many other names are already beginning to appear as potential candidates. While this information will most likely undergo changes as new public opinion data becomes available, the present anticipated frontrunners for the major political parties in America are as follows:

Recent polls

Diageo/Hotline Poll - June 21-25, 2006

Polls %
John McCain (R) 50%
Hillary Clinton (D) 40%

Polls %
John McCain (R) 49%
John Edwards (D) 36%

Democrats

The latest of the major public opinion polls for the 2008 election yielded the following results for potential Democratic candidates:

American Polling Research Institute - June 13-16, 2006

Democrat %
Hillary Clinton 36%
John Edwards 15%
John Kerry 13%
Russ Feingold 6%
Bill Richardson 5%
Joseph Biden 4%
Evan Bayh 3%
Mark Warner 3%
Unsure 11%
Wouldn't vote 4%

Another poll with a larger slate of candidates:

Gallup Poll. June 1-4, 2006
Democrat %
Hillary Clinton 36%
Al Gore 16%
John Edwards 12%
John Kerry 11%
Wes Clark 4%
Joseph Biden 4%
Russ Feingold 3%
Mark Warner 2%
Tom Daschle -
Tom Vilsack -
Someone else 3%
Unsure 5%
None 2%

Republicans

The latest of the major public opinion polls for the 2008 election yielded the following results for potential Republican candidates:

American Polling Research Institute - June 13-16, 2006

Republican %
Condoleezza Rice 30%
Rudolph Giuliani 21%
John McCain 20%
Newt Gingrich 8%
George Allen 5%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Bill Frist 2%
Unsure 3%
Wouldn't Vote 1%

For the latest polling reports visit http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm

Timeline

Early fundraising and primaries

Candidates of the Constitution, Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Reform, Republican, Socialist and other parties began making their plans known as early as 2004; candidates will emerge during 2006 and 2007 because of the long lead time for fund-raising. Federal election laws require the reporting of funds raised for the primary elections, and in the past the media has anointed "front-runners" on the basis of reported fund-raising totals. For example, the media treated Howard Dean as the front-runner going into the 2004 cycle, although he was initially considered by some to be a long-shot.

Delegates to the national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, or state caucuses and state conventions. Beginning in January 2008, the first delegate-selection contests will be held in Iowa (caucus), New Hampshire (primary) and possibly other states. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, including 2004, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries, because the leading candidates had collected enough committed delegates to win in the national convention. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

Later events

Potential candidates

While it is rare for candidates to officially declare their candidacy prior to late in the year preceding the presidential election (in this case, 2007), some potential candidates may have expressed their interest in running, and are listed below. At this early stage, many of the strongest candidates might have yet to emerge, and these lists include a few of the political figures who excite speculation among political activists, insiders, and media commentators. The fact that the current leading potential candidates for both major parties are female presents a possibility that the 2008 election will result in the first female President of the United States. Additionally, if Condoleezza Rice is elected, she will also become the first African-American President of the United States.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama may be a favorite for Vice President, but unlikely because in a January 22, 2006 appearance on Meet the Press, Obama once again reiterated that he will finish out his Senate term and will not run for president or vice president in 2008. ["Obama makes it very clear: No White House bid in '08"], Lynn Sweet, Chicago Sun-Times, January 23, 2006 Despite his denials, Obama continues to be the subject of speculation that he will run. ["Obama's Profile Has Democrats Taking Notice: Popular Senator Is Mentioned as 2008 Contender"], Charles Babington, Washington Post, June 18, 2006, Page A01 . Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner has high appeal among Moderates and is the Co-Founder of Nextel. His focus would shift the country toward the path of the scientific and technological future of the nation. He is the only Southern Democratic Governor considering a bid for the U.S. Presidency.

Conditions for Listing a Candidate

As stated above, we are in the early phase of the election. The different parties are throwing out names to see how the public reacts. For the people on this list who are well know, this is not a problem. It is easy to verify in outside sources on the internet who these people are. But for the candidates on this list who are not well know, there needs to be some standards. As long as they are US Natural Born Citizens and 35 years of age or older, they have a valid right to run, even if they are not well known. This list is intended to help the voter separate out the Mock candidate who are trying to make a political statement and the candidate who have a true intention to run in the 2008 Presidential Election. On the potential candidate's page, please indicate what condtions were met to be included on this list.

  1. Valid conditions to be on the list:
  2. # FEC Registered for Federal 2008 Presidential Election (Valid)
  3. # Letter of Intent to be a Write-In Candidate sent to the board of elections for all 50 states. (Valid)
  4. FEC Registration
  5. # FEC Registered for Federal 2008 Presidential Election (Valid)
  6. # FEC Registered for any election at any time. (Valid until Nov. 2007)
  7. Non-FEC Registered Candidates - Listed under a political party
  8. # Statement on the Party's official web site, static data (Valid)
  9. # Private Official Campaign Web Site (see below) (Valid until Nov. 2007)
  10. Non-FEC Registered Independant Candidate
  11. # Private Official Campaign Web Site (see below) (Valid until Nov. 2007)
  12. # Letter of Intent to be a write in candidate in home state (Valid until Nov. 2007)
  13. # Letter of Intent to be a Write-In Candidate sent to the board of elections for all 50 states. (Valid)
  14. Private Offical Campaign Web Site, Required Data
  15. # Private web page (non-free web page)
  16. # Statement of FEC Status
  17. # Valid current contact information (name, address, telephone, non-free email)
  18. # Date and place of birth
  19. # Intent of ballot placement or write-in status.
  20. # Current list of Registration for write-in status
FEC - FEC Registered Candidate.
FEC-Other - FEC Registered Candidate, other election.
Non-FEC - Non-FEC Registered Candidate

Democratic Party

Announced candidates for the Democratic Party:

Likely candidates Other potential candidates

Republican Party

Likely candidates for the Republican Party:

Other potential candidates Non-office holding candidates

Third parties

Constitution Party

Potential candidates for the Constitution Party:

Green Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Green Party: Other potential candidates

Libertarian Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Libertarian Party:

Potential candidates

Prohibition Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Prohibition Party: Other potential candidates

Reform Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Reform Party
None at the current time.

Socialist Party USA

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Socialist Party USA:

None yet.

Other potential candidates

Independents

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy Potential candidates

Opinion polling, prediction markets

Further information: Opinion polling for the 2008 U.S. presidential election
Tradesports, an online betting company with active political futures markets, lists candidates bettors predict are the most likely to be nominated in 2008.[link]

USA Button Poll has been successfully picking candidates since the 1980s by linking votes with buttons purchased. Shows current polling data and gives opportunity to purchase buttons from many different potential candidates. [link]

Candidate predictions

Eddie Ratliff, created a PAC called DraftMarkWarner to convince Mark Warner to run for President in 2008. Dick Morris, political commentator, best-selling author, and former Clinton adviser, published a book in 2005 entitled Condi vs. Hillary (subtitled The Next Great Presidential Race) (ISBN 0060839139), in which he predicts that U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice will be the Republican nominee in 2008, while NY Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. Morris also predicts that while Dr. Rice herself will not actively pursue the office, a grassroots draft movement (in the style of the Draft-Eisenhower movement in 1952) will see to it that Dr. Rice's name appears on the primary ballots and that Dr. Rice, without any campaigning on her own part, will receive the GOP nomination. There is already a large Draft Condi movement, the most prominent group being a 527 political organization called Americans for Dr. Rice, which has accumulated thousands of members, already begun fundraising, and has aired radio and television ads in several key campaign states. There is also a group called [VoteHillary.org] seeking to persuade Senator Clinton to run in 2008.

Bob Woodward, in 2005, stated that Cheney is a "serious darkhorse" candidate for the GOP nomination in 2008[link] and later predicted that the nominees in 2008 would be Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Dick Cheney for the Republicans. Cheney, in response, affirmed that even if he were offered the Republican nomination in 2008, he would not accept it.

In a mock prediction on an episode of The Colbert Report, comedian Stephen Colbert has projected that Senator Bill Frist would be elected, a projection made to allegedly "get a jump on the other networks". While Frist is a speculated candidate, it is not known if he will pursue the GOP nomination.

Possible electoral college change

In 2006, the DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act was introduced in the U.S. House. If enacted, it would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by 1. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia. But the bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to Utah (at-large until the next census), and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at 3, as required by the 23rd amendment.

The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate. Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote.

References

External links

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