Victorian legislative election, 2006

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This article or section contains information about an upcoming or ongoing election. Content may change dramatically as the election approaches and unfolds.

2006 Victorian state election major party leaders
Liberal		Labor
Ted Baillieu Opposition Leader		Steve Bracks Premier of Victoria
Age	52	Age	51
Parliament	6 years	Parliament	12 years
Leader since	2006	Leader since	1999
District	Hawthorn	District	Williamstown
Profession	Architect	Profession	Teacher
Spouse	Robyn Baillieu	Spouse	Terry Bracks

The state election for the 56th Parliament of Victoria is scheduled for 25 November 2006. Just under 3 million Victorians will elect 88 members to the Legislative Assembly and, for the first time, 40 members to the Legislative Council under a proportional representation system. The party or coalition that wins the majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly will form the new government of Victoria.

The Australian Labor Party government of Premier Steve Bracks, first elected in 1999, is seeking a third consecutive term and holds 62 of the 88 lower house seats. It is pitted against the Liberal Party of Australia opposition of Ted Baillieu and the Peter Ryan-led rural conservative National Party of Australia. The Liberal and National parties, who severed their traditional coalition following the 1999 election, have refused to reform their partnership ahead of the poll. They face an uphill battle against the Bracks government, needing a swing of up to 7.7 per cent to gain power.

According to some analysts, the Victorian Greens could win the balance of power in the Legislative Council if they repeat their 2002 state election polling.[Analysis: The Draft Victorian Legislative Council Boundaries], Antony Green, ABC Elections Victoria, 2006

Key dates

Terms are now fixed at four years. Key dates for the election are:

• 7 Nov 2006 Close of rolls
• 10 Nov 2006 Close of nominations
• 25 Nov 2006 Election day
• *Polls will close at 6:00PM AEST on election day and the first results are expected within an hour.

Victoria's system of government

Composition of the Parliament of Victoria
Political Party	Legislative Assembly	Legislative Council
Labor	62	24
Liberal	17	14
National	7	4
Independent	2	2
Source: Victorian Electoral Commission

Victoria has a parliamentary form of government based on the Westminster System. Legislative power resides in the Parliament consisting of the Governor (the representative of the Queen), the executive (the Government), and two legislative chambers. While Queen Elizabeth II is Victoria's head of state, it is in practice a ceremonial role.

The Parliament of Victoria consists of the lower house Legislative Assembly, the upper house Legislative Council and the Queen of Australia. Eighty-eight members of the Legislative Assembly are elected to four-year terms from single-member electorates. After this election the new Legislative Council will consist of 40 members - the five members for each of the eight new regions will be elected via proportional representation for four year terms.

The Premier of Victoria is the leader of the political party or coalition with the most seats in the Legislative Assembly. The Premier is the public face of government and, with Cabinet, sets the legislative and political agenda. Cabinet consists of representatives elected to either house of parliament. It is responsible for managing areas of government reserved for the states by the Australian Constitution, such as education, health and law enforcement.

The Governor of Victoria has a ceremonial role representing Queen Elizabeth II. The post is usually filled by a retired prominent Victorian. The governor acts on the advice of the Premier and Cabinet.

Victoria has a written constitution. Enacted in 1975, but based on the 1855 colonial constitution, it establishes the parliament as the state's supreme law-making body. The Victorian Constitution can be amended by the parliament without voter approval.

State of the parties

Lower house districts covering metropolitan Melbourne have always been won by either ALP or Liberal candidates. Since the 2002 election, however, the Victorian Greens have emerged ahead of the Liberals to challenge Labor for inner-city seats such as Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote. The ALP is strongest, and arguably unchallenged, in most seats north and west of the Yarra River - Melbourne's traditional cultural divide.

In fact, the Liberals have not won a metropolitan seat west of the Yarra since 1996. After the 2002 election landslide, the ALP held every Melbourne seat except for a thin band of strong Liberal seats in the eastern surburbs. To win government, the Liberals need to win back their traditional heartland seats in eastern and south-east Melbourne.

The ALP's success in 1999 and 2002 was partly due to its success in regional Victoria. To hold onto power, the ALP will seek to retain seats outside Melbourne, and to hold its eastern suburban gains in 2002.

The Liberals will aim to win back urban fringe seats in eastern Melbourne, such as Gembrook, Hastings and Evelyn, and retain their marginal seats.

The Nationals have suffered heavily in recent years from the abolition of country seats they easily won, the rise of independents in Mildura and Gippsland East and direct competition from the Liberals. They are aiming to hold on to their seven rural seats and also get members elected to the new upper house.

Electoral Districts and Regions

Parliament of Victoria

For a complete list of nominated candidates in both houses of parliament, see Candidates of the Victorian legislative election, 2006

Legislative Assembly

The Legislative Assembly, or lower house, is the chamber of government in the Parliament of Victoria. It consists of 88 members directly elected under a preferential voting system. The state is divided into 88 electorates called districts for voting purposes. Each district consists of approximately 38,000 eligible voters. After the 2002 state election, the ALP held 62 seats, the Liberals 17 and the Nationals 7. Two seats are held by independent members.

The tables belows lists all 88 districts in order of strength, including the sitting members, their party affiliation and the swing required for members to lose their seats.

LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Evelyn	Heather McTaggart	ALP	0.34%
Hastings	Rosy Buchanan	ALP	0.86%
Gembrook	Tammy Lobato	ALP	1.59%
Melbourne	Bronwyn Pike	ALP	1.93%
Kilsyth	Dympna Beard	ALP	2.10%
Ferntree Gully	Anne Eckstein	ALP	2.29%
Mount Waverley	Maxine Morand	ALP	2.30%
Bayswater	Peter Lockwood	ALP	2.75%
Richmond	Richard Wynne	ALP	3.10%
Fairly safe
Prahan	Tony Lupton	ALP	4.43%
Mordialloc	Janice Munt	ALP	4.54%
Bentleigh	Rob Hudson	ALP	4.75%
Eltham	Steve Herbert	ALP	4.80%
Morwell	Brendan Jenkins	ALP	4.87%
South Barwon	Michael Crutchfield	ALP	5.02%
Burwood	Bob Stensholt	ALP	5.10%
Frankston	Alistair Harkness	ALP	5.78%
Forest Hill	Kirstie Marshall	ALP	5.79%
Narracan	Ian Maxfield	ALP	6.83%
Safe
Ripon	Joe Helper	ALP	7.44%
Ballarat East	Geoff Howard	ALP	7.62%
Mitcham	Tony Robinson	ALP	7.69%
Geelong	Ian Trezise	ALP	8.11%
Bellarine	Lisa Neville	ALP	8.26%
Monbulk	James Merlino	ALP	8.27%
Ballarat West	Karen Overington	ALP	9.01%
Macedon	Joanne Duncan	ALP	9.26%
Seymour	Ben Hardman	ALP	9.50%
Yan Yean	Danielle Green	ALP	9.54%
Narre Warren North	Luke Donnellan	ALP	9.71%
Cranbourne	Jude Perera	ALP	10.80%
Carrum	Jenny Lindell	ALP	12.17%
Ivanhoe	Craig Langdon	ALP	12.50%
Albert Park	John Thwaites	ALP	12.60%
Narre Warren South	Dale Wilson	ALP	12.61%
Bendigo East	Jacinta Allan	ALP	12.97%
Oakleigh	Ann Barker	ALP	15.22%
Melton	Don Nardella	ALP	15.33%
Bendigo West	Bob Cameron	ALP	15.95%
Essendon	Judy Maddigan	ALP	16.00%
Mulgrave	Daniel Andrews	ALP	16.23%
Niddrie	Rob Hulls	ALP	16.61%
Tarneit	Mary Gillett	ALP	17.41%
Bundoora	Sheryl Garbutt	ALP	17.58%
Keilor	George Seitz	ALP	18.05%
Very safe
Dandenong	John Pandazopoulos	ALP	20.32%
Lara	Peter Loney	ALP	22.35%
Yuroke	Liz Beattie	ALP	22.89%
Clayton	Hong Lim	ALP	23.85%
Pascoe Vale	Christine Campbell	ALP	24.21%
Altona	Lynne Kosky	ALP	24.70%
Footscray	Bruce Mildenhall	ALP	24.91%
Lyndhurst	Tim Holding	ALP	25.09%
Williamstown	Steve Bracks	ALP	25.72%
Preston	Michael Leighton	ALP	25.76%
Mill Park	Lily D'Ambrosio	ALP	26.79%
Kororoit	André Haermeyer	ALP	27.06%
Derrimut	Telmo Languiller	ALP	27.31%
Brunswick	Carlo Carli	ALP	28.10%
Northcote	Mary Delahunty	ALP	28.33%
Broadmeadows	John Brumby	ALP	30.79%
Thomastown	Peter Batchelor	ALP	31.75%

NON-LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Nepean	Martin Dixon	LIB	0.18%
Bass	Ken Smith	LIB	0.65%
South-West Coast	Denis Napthine	LIB	0.75%
Doncaster	Victor Perton	LIB	0.78%
Box Hill	Robert Clark	LIB	1.10%
Mornington	Robin Cooper	LIB	1.83%
Benalla	Bill Sykes	NAT	1.98%
Caulfield	Helen Shardey	LIB	2.26%
Bulleen	Nick Kotsiras	LIB	2.65%
Sandringham	Murray Thompson	LIB	3.04%
Scoresby	Kim Wells	LIB	3.33%
Fairly safe
Benambra	Tony Plowman	LIB	4.04%
Shepparton	Jeanette Powell	NAT	4.28%
Hawthorn	Ted Baillieu	LIB	5.89%
Kew	Andrew McIntosh	LIB	5.99%
Warrandyte	Phil Honeywood	LIB	6.36%
Safe
Brighton	Louise Asher	LIB	7.42%
Polwarth	Terry Mulder	LIB	9.54%
Rodney	Noel Maughan	NAT	9.96%
Malvern	Robert Doyle	LIB	10.19%
Gippsland South	Peter Ryan	NAT	10.86%
Murray Valley	Ken Jasper	NAT	13.90%
Swan Hill	Peter Walsh	NAT	14.16%
Lowan	Hugh Delahunty	NAT	17.09%
Independents
Gippsland East	Craig Ingram	IND	11.75%
Mildura	Russell Savage	IND	18.46%

Marginal seats

Marginal seats are the the most tightly contested lower house districts. A marginal seat's sitting member won that seat at the previous election by only a small margin. Opposition candidates therefore have a greater chance of winning the seat at the upcoming election. There is no universal definition for a marginal seat. For Victorian purposes, anything below a 3% to 4% margin is a reasonable indication that a seat is marginal.

For information on winning margin trends on the 20 most marginal seats for this election see 2006 Victorian election marginal seats.

Legislative Council

Under the new structure of the Legislative Council, the number of members will drop from 44 to 40 after this election. This has introduced considerable competition within all parties for preselection for Legislative Council seats. The switch from provinces electing one member at a time to regions electing five members also means that the major parties are more likely to lose seats to smaller parties such as The Greens. The balance in the current Legislative Council is ALP 24, Liberals 14, Nationals 4 and 2 independents.

For details on candidates preselected for the Legislative Council see Candidates of the Victorian legislative election, 2006.

Major Parties

It is not certain that the ALP will retain their majority in the Legislative Council.

Minor Parties

Based on 2002 state election results, The Greens are considered likely to win a seat in the Northern Metropolitan and Southern Metropolitan regions. There is also a possibility they may win a seat in the Eastern Metropolitan Region.

Opinion polls

Leader ratings

	Preferred premier ratings^
		Liberal		Labor
May/June 2006	24%		49%
March/April 2006	15%*		60%
January/February 2006	17%*		58%
November/December 2005	19%*		55%
September/October 2005	21%*		55%
July/August 2005	22%*		51%
Source: Newspoll * Results are for former Liberal leader Robert Doyle. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Voting intention

The tables below list voting intentions for the 2006 election. Conducted by Roy Morgan Research and Newspoll/The Australian, the surveys asked approximately 1000 voters each month: "If a State election were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?" The table also includes the two-party preferred vote.

	Victorian state voting intention
	Political parties							Two-party preferred
							Other parties/ independents
2002 Election	47.9%	33.9%	4.3%	9.7%	0.1%	N/A	4.1%	57.8%	42.2%
June 2006	46.5%	35%	3%	7%	1.5%	3%	4%	57%	43%
May 2006	42%	39%	2.5%	7.5%	align="center" width="" bgcolor="e9e9e9"
2.5%	6.5%	53%	47%
April/May 2006	48%	34.5%	2.5%	9.5%	1%	1.5%	3%	57.5%	42.5%
April 2006	48.5%	31.5%	2%	8%	2%	3%	5%	59.5%	40.5%
March 2006	46%	35%	2%	8%	2%	3%	4%	58%	42%
February 2006	48%	32%	2.5%	7.5%	2.5%	2.5%	5%	60%	40%
January 2006	48%	33.5%	2.5%	7.5%	2.5%	2%	4%	59%	41%
December 2005	43.5%	34.5%	2%	12%	1.5%	2.5%	4%	57.5%	42.5%
November 2005	47.5%	32%	3%	8.5%	2%	2.5%	4.5%	59%	41%
October 2005	50%	32%	3%	7%	1.5%	3%	3.5%	60.5%	39.5%
September 2005	44.5%	35%	2.5%	8%	1.5%	3%	5.5%	55.5%	44.5%
August 2005	47%	36%	2.5%	7%	1%	2.5%	4%	57%	43%
July 2005	45.5%	37%	2.5%	6.5%	2%	2%	4.5%	55%	45%
June 2005	43.5%	36%	2.5%	9.5%	1.5%	3%	4%	55.5%	44.5%
May 2005	46.5%	35.5%	3%	7%	1.5%	2.5%	4%	57	43%
Source: Roy Morgan Research N/A Family First did not contest 2002 election.

	Victorian state voting intention
	Political parties					Two-party preferred
					Other parties/ independents
2002 Election	47.9%	33.9%	4.3%	9.7%	4.1%	57.8%	42.2%
May/June 2006	45%	32%	4%	5%	14%	57%	43%
March/April 2006	44%	34%	4%	7%	11%	56%	44%
January/February 2006	44%	36%	4%	5%	11%	56%	44%
November/December 2005	41%	36%	4%	7%	12%	54%	46%
September/October 2005	43%	38%	3%	6%	11%	55%	45%
July/August 2005	42%	38%	3%	6%	11%	54%	46%
May/June 2005	44%	35%	3%	9%	9%	56%	44%
Source: Newspoll/The Australian

Analysis of Morgan Poll conducted on 4 March 2006

The Morgan Poll on 4 March 2006 found that ALP support rose 1.5% from January to 60.5%. This translated to a significant lead of 21% over the L-NP (39.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. With primary support for the Liberal Party was declining, if a Victorian State Election had been held in February, the ALP would have won easily. Primary support for the Greens was 7.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2.5% (unchanged), National Party 2.5% (unchanged), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%) and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 5% (up 1%)[L-NP Continues To Lose Ground To ALP In Victoria], Author, Roy Morgan Research, 4 March 2006

ACNielsen/Age poll in late May

Opposition leader Ted Baillieu's rating in the ACNielsen/Age poll in late May was 6 percentage points higher than former leader Robert Doyle's in the last state Agepoll in November 2005. However, Mr Baillieu's 36 per cent approval rating was still eclipsed by Mr Bracks' 59 per cent, up from 53 last November. On these poll results, the Bracks Government would be returned in a landslide with 55 per cent of the vote after preferences, despite a is a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor since its 2002 landslide. The Liberal and National parties were on 45 per cent. The poll also showed that most people prefer Mr Baillieu as Liberal leader to former premier Jeff Kennett[Bracks still ahead, but hope for Baillieu], The Age, 25 May 2006 .

Morgan Poll in June 2006

A Morgan Poll of 1003 voters in June showed support for the Liberals collapsing (42.5%) and Labor rebounding (57.5%) to a lead of landslide proportions (after preferences) just five months before the state election. The poll results were reported as "an end to Ted Baillieu's honeymoon as State Opposition Leader"[Baillieu's honeymoon at an end], The Age, 1 July 2006 .

Parties

Australian Labor Party - Victorian Branch

With a huge majority in the lower house, the Bracks government is expected to be re-elected.

However, Labor's State cabinet has been criticised for being old, complacent, top heavy and stale with major decisions on channel deepening, gaming machine licences and the full report of the State Services Authority into the troubled Rural Ambulance Victoria being delayed until after the election.[State cabinet looking old, complacent], The Age, 30 April 2006

Tim Pallas will enter Parliament in November. Pallas, Premier Steve Bracks' chief of staff, defeated Labor parliamentary secretary Mary Gillett for Labor preselection for the safe seat of Tarneit.

Liberal-National Coalition

Former Liberal leader Robert Doyle stated he would be willing to have coalition talks with the Nationals after the election. The two conservative parties have acknowledged they would try to form a coalition if that was necessary to defeat Labor.

But tensions have emerged between the coalition partners over issues such as the Liberal policy of halving tolls on the EastLink freeway. Nationals leader Peter Ryan has stated that his party did not back the policy, because it would mean public money was spent on motorists in Melbourne's eastern suburbs, at the expense of services for country Victorians.[Liberals, Nationals to consider coalition], The Age, 10 April 2006

Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division)

During March 2006, Phil Honeywood, the Deputy Opposition Leader, then Victor Perton both announced they would not contest the next election. This contributed to ongoing speculation about Robert Doyle's leadership, during which Ted Baillieu emerged as a possible challenger. Tensions between the Liberal factions were temporarily resolved with the appointment of Louise Asher as deputy opposition leader, with Doyle retaining the leadership unchallenged.[A rival-turned-ally rescues Doyle's leadership], The Age, 31 March 2006

Robert Doyle's media director Rob Clancy's resignation became public on 26 April 2006, two weeks after his chief of staff Ron Wilson left for a job in the private sector. The Liberal Party state president Helen Kroger is another Doyle supporter who is moving on. This string of resignations has raised questions about the strength of Doyle's team in the lead up to the election. In response, Doyle has denied that people were leaving because they did not think the party could win the election and that the resignations did not reflect well on the Liberals. [Opposition Leader Doyle loses another player], The Age, 26 April 2006

Strong rumours of an imminent "forced resignation" and Doyle "losing the support of the party" were aired on the front page of Melbourne's HeraldSun newspaper on 4 May 2006. Doyle did indeed resign as as both Opposition Leader and MP for Malvern that day, although he stated that the "decision was his own"[Doyle ready to quit], Herald Sun, 04 May 2006 and that "his best was not enough to lead the party to victory in a state election just six months away".[Doyle: my best not enough], The Age, 4 May 2006

On 5 May 2006, it became clear that Ted Baillieu would become Opposition and Liberal Party Leader after former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett and Shadow Minister for Transport Terry Mulder both withdrew from the leadership race, resulting in Baillieu being elected to the position unopposed on 8 May 2006.

National Party of Australia - Victoria

The National Party's leader in Victoria is Peter Ryan. With declining voter support over the last two Victorian state elections and the abolition of the National seat of Wimmera, the National Party almost lost its parliamentary party status in the 2002 State Election. They enter the 2006 election with 11 seats (7 in the Legislative Assembly and 4 in the Legislative Council).[Victorian Election 2002], Parliament of Australia Parliamentary Library, Current Issues Brief No 13, 13 February 2003

Australian Greens - Victoria

Greg Barber, former City of Yarra mayor, won Greens preselection to contest contest a seat in the upper house region of Northern Metropolitan, where the Greens are considered most to likely win their first seat in the Victorian Parliament. Sue Pennicuik, a co-covener of the state party, was preselected for the Southern Metropolitan region. Bill Pemberton and Marcus Ward were preselected for the Eastern and Western Metropolitan regions respectively.[Ex-Yarra mayor in Greens poll bid]], The Age, 26 December 2005

Based on the Greens' vote at the 2002 election the party would have picked up a seat in both the Northern and Southern Metropolitan regions. Extrapolating from the 2002 results the Greens would also have been likely to win the 5th position in Eastern Metropolitan, Eastern Victoria and possibly Western Metropolitan. However, the presence of more minor parties means that preference flows may be very different this time. Political experts believe that the Greens may hold the balance of power after the next state election.

Australian Democrats (Victorian Division)

After a fairly quiet campaign in the 2002 state election, the Democrats experienced a significant decrease in votes, despite concentrating their efforts on the upper house. After poor results in the 2006 South Australian election, and not contesting the 2006 Tasmanian election, their intentions regarding the 2006 Victorian election are not currently known.

Independents

The two current independent lower house MPs, Russell Savage (Mildura) and Craig Ingram (Gippsland East) both hold their seats by comfortable margins and are therefore highly likely to be re-elected.

The fate of the two independent upper house MPs is less clear. Maverick Labor-turned-independent MLC Dianne Hadden will attempt to shift to the lower house and run in Ballarat East against incumbent Labor MP Geoff Howard, but no polling has been done as to a potential result there. Liberal-turned-independent Andrew Olexander will attempt to retain his seat in the Legislative Council, having attempted to build a profile for himself after being expelled from the Liberal Party over disputes stemming from a drink driving conviction, but appears less likely to retain his seat than Hadden.

Other parties and groups

Other parties registered in Victoria that may field candidates include:

• Citizens Electoral Council (Victorian Division)
• Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of Australia
• Socialist Alliance (Victoria)
• Country Alliance

People Power, a group formed in 2000 by Vern Hughes and Stephen Mayne, has announced an intention to field a team of candidates for both lower and upper house seats[[People Power - Victorian State Election], 2006 . This group is not currently registered as a political party but has announced intentions to run candidates for both the upper and lower houses.

Family First announced Cameron Eastman as their lead candidate and spokesperson for the election. Eastman works in a civilian capacity for the Victoria Police and will contest the upper house region of Eastern Victoria. Eastman stated that the party had no hidden agendas, despite being labelled an arm of the Christian Right movement. "There's no formal structural approach to churches in any way," he said[Ex-naval officer hopes for Family First victory], The Age, 18 April 2006. He also stated that Family First's Victorian campaign would include a strong anti-gambling stance and would raise concerns about hospital waiting lists and the sale of public assets.

The Campaign

By April 2006, Labor still has not formally launched their campaign to retain office. However, the Bracks government has been criticised for spending about $9 million on a taxpayer-funded pre-election television advertising blitz promoting its record in the politically sensitive areas of hospitals, police, schools, major projects, the rural economy and programs such as "Our Water Our Future". Robert Doyle stated that "this is using our money to promote Steve Bracks and the Labor Party. If the ALP want to promote themselves, let them spend their own money — not yours and mine". Premier Steve Bracks defended the advertisements, stating "the Government has regularly run ads to highlight the work of and recruit new teachers, police and nurses as well as encourage business investment in Victoria".[Bracks attacked over $9m ad campaign], The Age, 22 November 2005

The Nationals then the Liberals launch their campaigns separately

The state leader of the Nationals, Peter Ryan, used his opening address to the Nationals' annual conference held on 7 April 2006 at the All Seasons "quality resort" in Bendigo to "officially" launch his party's campaign.[It's only 33 weeks for Doyle], The Age, 7 April 2006 Prior to the launch, Ryan stated that the National party will support the introduction of minimum prison sentences for serious crimes to ensure that sentences more accurately reflect community expectations[Nationals to support minimum sentencing], National Victoria Media Release, 6 April 2006 . At the launch, Ryan stressed the importance of the family unit and traditional values, and criticised Melbourne Labor for its lack of vision and the decision to pre-select city-based candidates to contest Upper House seats in country areas.[Traditional values feature at campaign launch], National Victoria Media Release, 7 April 2006

Opposition Leader Robert Doyle launched the Liberals' campaign on Sunday 9 April at the Hawthorn campus of Melbourne University Private. Doyle unveiled a policy to reintroduce a 10 per cent speed zone tolerance, replacing the 3 km/h tolerance enforced by Labor, to make speed cameras more visible and to abolish bonus payments to speed camera operators who book large numbers of drivers. Acting premier John Thwaites said the policy was dangerous, stating that "We all know that speeding causes deaths, and yet the Opposition is now giving a green light for people to speed".[Doyle slams speed cam 'slug'], The Age, 10 April 2006

People Power pop up

Peter Allan, a People Power candidate for the upper house, stated on 18 April 2006 that they will be running an anti-poker machine platform under the umbrella of their party[Anti-pokies candidates set sights on November poll], The Age, 19 April 2006 . They are apparently hoping to emulate the success of "no-pokies" candidates Nick Xenophon and Anne Bressington at the recent South Australian election.

The Government announces water saving strategies, but its environmental credentials are criticised

Victorian Environment Minister John Thwaites unveiled the Government's draft water strategy on 20 April 2006. The strategy aims to take some pressure off over-stressed rivers through tougher water-saving targets and fines for individuals. With demand in Melbourne and elsewhere expected to outstrip supply within 15 years, water is emerging prominent environmental issue of the campaign. Opposition spokesman David Davis said the Government's promise to flush an extra 20 billion litres into the Yarra was "a very small drop in the river", and called for more action to clean up the polluted river. [Water plan won't save rivers from over-use], The Age, 21 April 2006

The Wilderness Society and the Australian Conservation Foundation have also criticised the Bracks Government's continued support for logging of water catchments as a contributing factor to the looming water shortage[Central Highlands Information, Water Catchments in the Central Highlands], The Wilderness Society, 2006 . Clearfell logging and woodchipping of Victorian forests has also been linked to the destruction of critical habitat for threatened species such as Leadbeater's possum, Victoria’s endangered faunal emblem[Premier Bracks allows destruction of old growth trees and endangered wildlife on Melbourne’s fringe], The Wilderness Society and Australian Conservation Foundation Media Release, 6 February 2006 .

The Bracks Government raised the ire of environment groups in September 2005 with its decision to to expand Hazelwood power station's operations to at least 2031. This decision was labelled "as an environmental tragedy that will be fought through legal action" due to Hazelwood being Australia’s worst climate change polluting power station. Marcus Godhino from Environment Victoria stated “this is a gutless, tragic decision by Steve Bracks. Hazelwood was the Premier’s number one environmental test. He has now failed.” Greenpeace and the Australian Conservation Foundation also strongly criticised the decision[Steve Bracks condemns Victoria to climate change], Environment Victoria, Media Release, 6 September 2005.

The Clean Ocean Foundation environment group and the State Opposition have called for greater transparency about the water quality near the sewage outfall at Boag's Rocks, near Gunnamatta surf beach on the Mornington Peninsula, and have stated that effluent from the outfall has caused a health and environment crisis. The State Government has refused early release of the results of water tests at the beach, even though a growing number of people have fallen ill after surfing there. Environment and Water Minister John Thwaites said the results of tests by Melbourne Water would not be released until the end of the year[Thwaites refuses early release of Gunnamatta Beach tests], The Age, 30 April 2006 .

Environment groups have also raised Alcoa's proposed $1 billion Portland aluminium smelter expansion as a key climate change related issue they would campaign on in the lead-up to the November election. Marcus Godinho said the Alcoa decision was the "No. 1 environmental test for the Government". Alcoa's two smelters at Victoria (at Portland and Point Henry), use 18 to 25 per cent of Victoria's electricity production, most of which is sourced from brown coal fired power plants. If the Portland smelter expansion is approved significant extra power would be required. Erwin Jackson from the ACF said: "We … have said very clearly to the Government that if Alcoa expands, they need to make sure the state's greenhouse emissions don't increase"[Greenhouse showdown over smelter], The Age, 21 May 2006 .

Some directions for Labor's campaign are revealed

The Victorian ALP's draft policy platform "Rising to the Challenges" partly revealed the direction a third-term re-elected Bracks Labor Government would take. The platform includes as priorities encouraging the greater use of public transport, replacing hundreds of old school buildings and legalising abortion. Labor would also promise public interest statements on all future public-private partnerships and include a value-for-money comparison with full public funding. The door is left open to public-private partnerships to rebuild old schools. It would consider payroll tax exemptions as an incentive to employers to offer 14 weeks paid maternity leave and push for two weeks paternity leave. Nuclear energy would be banned, and Labor would accelerate the development of renewable energy technologies. The platform also allows room for more new toll roads but rules out tolls on existing roads. The platform commits Labor to maintaining a minimum budget surplus of $100 million and to closely manage "recurrent expenditure".

In an apparent shift of focus from building new freeways and tollways, the Government's long-awaited transport and liveability statement concentrating on outer suburbs is referenced and "the [pressing] need for a quantum leap in funding for public transport" is mentioned. Under health, the platform commits the Labor Party to reducing waiting times for emergency treatment, elective surgery and dental care. The draft platform will be debated by the party's state conference in May, after which the Government would then "develop the specific election commitments it will put to Victorian voters at the historic first fixed-term election" on November 25, 2006, Mr Bracks wrote[ALP spells out plans for third term], The Age, 23 April 2006 .

An independent champions gay marriage

Gay marriage may become a state election issue as independent MP Andrew Olexander pushes for his private member’s bill on the issue to be debated before the November poll. Olexander, who is gay, was expelled from the Liberal Party last year after crashing his taxpayer-funded car while drunk. He subsequently publicly accused his party of being homophobic[Vic push for same-sex bill], The Age, 30 March 2006 .

Melbourne 2030 strategy becomes a battleground

Ted Baillieu, the opposition planning spokesman stated that the Bracks Government's metropolitan planning blueprint Melbourne 2030 would be scrapped and the power of the planning appeals tribunal wound back under a state Liberal Government, although the Urban Growth Boundary would be retained. [Libs vow to scrap 2030 plan], The Age, 1 May 2006

Residents groups such us Save Our Suburbs have been campaigning against development proposals linked to the 2030 Blueprint, such as the proposed high-rise Mitcham towers and the redevelopment of Camberwell railway station. While SOS had been a qualified supporter of 2030, president Ian Quick said the Government had failed to deliver on 2030 promises such as investing in public transport, stating "just about everybody agrees with the majority of 2030 principles, but the principles just aren't being translated into reality". [SOS sends help to Libs on planning], The Age, 2 May 2006 Quick will nominate for the seat of Richmond as the first SOS candidate in a state election, a move that will increase pressure on Labor's sitting MP Richard Wynne. [Save Our Suburbs eyes seat in Parliament], The Age, 3 May 2006

Doyle resigns unexpectedly and Kennett considers his options

Doyle's announcement of his resignation as Opposition leader, possibly prompted by continual dismall poll results, created a flurry of speculation about who would replace him. Shadow frontbenchers Terry Mulder and Ted Baillieu and deputy leader Louise Asher were contenders. Former premier Jeff Kennett also announced he would consider making a political comeback as leader of the Liberal Opposition in Victoria. [Kennett considers a come-back], The Age, 4 May 2006

Liberal factional tensions were increased with Prime Minister John Howard's strong endorsement of Kennett, who's faction has fueded with that of Peter Costello/Michael Kroger. [Liberals 'falling apart'], The Age, 4 May 2006 Departing from his normal practice of not commenting on state Liberal matters, Howard said that although he preferred Kennett over Baillieu, "whoever is chosen, and it looks like it will be Mr Baillieu, will have my support and I believe with his organisational background as well, that will give him a good start in rebuilding the Party’s fortune".

He also stated that:

"Oppositions at a state level have got to realise that you can’t fatten the pig on market day when it comes to winning state elections. You’ve got to actually work out some policies months in advance and seeing as you’ve asked me, I think that the weakness of state oppositions in the past has been that they leave it until the last four weeks thinking they can generate a momentum. It’s too late then. Unless you start giving people a reason why they should change government months before an election, you’ve got no hope of shifting them." [Doorstop Interview Ford Australia, Campbellfield], Prime Minister of Australia Newsroom, 5 May 2006

Political commentator Dr Nick Economou stated that a change in leadership is unlikely to reverse the declining fortunes of the state Liberal Party.

Baillieu takes the Liberal leadership baton

On the morning of May 5, 2006. Ted Baillieu announced his candidacy for the Liberal Party leadership. Jeff Kennett withdrew from the contest and stated his support for Baillieu. Later that afternoon, Baillieu's only other challenger for the position, Shadow Minister for Transport Terry Mulder also withdrew from the race and publicly supported Baillieu's leadership.

Baillieu and current Deputy Leader Louise Asher were elected unopposed on May 8, 2006 at a special party meeting after shadow police spokesman Kim Wells and shadow Attorney-General Andrew McIntosh withdrew their bids to challenge Asher's Deputy position.

Many Victorian's don't know much about about Baillieu. Aged 52, he is considered an economic conservative who holds progressive views on social issues in line with the Victorian Liberal tradition. [A blueblood pin-up], Herald Sun, 6 May 2006

Baillieu was not accorded a honeymoon period in his new role. Labor Attorney-General Rob Hulls immediately attacked Baillieu, lampooning his privileged background and wealthy family. "Even his own colleagues describe him as Ted the toff from Toorak," Mr Hulls said. Mr Hulls' remarks drew an angry response from Liberal MPs, including Terry Mulder, who said the personal attack was "un-Australian", and the Government was panicking. [Labor takes a swipe at 'Ted the toff'], Herald Sun, 6 May 2006

On his first day as state opposition leader Baillieu ditched his party's controversial pledge to levy only half tolls on the Eastlink tollway being built through Melbourne's east[Baillieu drops 'half tolls' policy], The Age, 9 May 2006, attacked Labor on its traditional policy strengths of health, education and public transport, and flagged an imminent reshuffle of the Opposition's front bench[Front bench reshuffle imminent], The Age, 9 May 2006.

The reshuffle, announced on 12 May 2006, resulted in prominent places for two MPs demoted in 2005 by Doyle. Richard Dalla-Riva regained his scrutiny-of-government portfolio and a place in the opposition cabinet for the first time. David Davis, the opposition's environment spokesman, took on the planning portfolio previously held by Baillieu.

The Liberals show a tinge of green

Baillieu then moved to boost the Liberal's social and environmental credentials by pledging his support for voluntary euthanasia and stating that Port Phillip Bay should be dredged only if the environment could be protected. He also called for limits on greenhouse gases being emitted from Hazelwood power station and committed to support wind farms provided they had local support and were not built in pristine coastal areas.[Baillieu marks out green battlefield], The Age, 12 May 2006 These moves could also be aimed at countering the surprising growth in support for the Greens in Baillieu's electorate of Hawthorn (19.8% in 2002) and neighbouring Kew (17.4% in 2002).

Labor announces increased funding for bike paths and transport

Premier Steve Bracks announced a $72 million boost to funding over 10 years to encourage two-wheeled commuting and recreation, to be spent on establishing and upgrading on-road bicycle lanes and off-road cycling trails, and to provide safer pedestrian crossings on busy roads. Currently, only $4 million per year is being spent on on-road bicycle paths. Transport Minister Peter Batchelor said the aim was to encourage more people to take up cycling as an alternative to driving, which will help ease congestion on roads.[Bike paths get $72 million boost], The Australian, 14 May 2006

On 17 May 2006, Bracks announced a completed transport plan with a total expenditure of $10.5 billion, covering $2.9 billion for rail, a $1.4 billion bus package and $2 billion for arterial roads. $2.8 billion will be spent over four years creating 24,000 extra public transport services a week, adding 260km to Melbourne's crosstown bus network and employing 800 new staff on the public transport network. Bracks stated that "this major new investment in the state's transport network will connect our growing communities, cut congestion and deliver a modern and safe system for all Victorians". [Bracks' $10.5b transport plan], The Age, 17 May 2006 The plan was criticised by both the RACV and the Public Transport Users Association, both saying it did not go far enough. Alex Makin from the PTUA said the plan was a series of "regurgitated announcements" that failed to deliver rail extensions that were much needed. Ken Ogden from the RACV was disappointed there was no commitment to complete the ring road between Greensborough and the Eastern Freeway or the Frankston Bypass.[All aboard for a $10 billion ride], Herald Sun, 18 May 2006

An alliance of 26 rural councils was next to criticise the transport package when they launched a savage attack because it ignores the Victorian regional rail network. The Alliance of Councils for Rail Freight Development, which covers municipalities in west and central Victoria and the Riverina, said the "$10.5 billion extravaganza" allocated only half of 1 per cent to the country rail freight network [Councils railing over Bracks], The Age, 22 May 2006 .

Labor’s State budget is oriented towards the election

Treasurer John Brumby announced the 2006/2007 State budget in his budget speech to parliament delivered on 30 May 2006. The budget, assessed as generous by most commentators, included:

The economy

• An operating surplus of $317 million for 2006-07, and surpluses averaging $316 million for the following three years.
• Economic growth forecast at 2.5 per cent in 2005-06, and 3.25 in 2006-07, rising to 3.5 per cent the following year before returning to 3.25 per cent.
• Jobs forecast to grow by 1.5 per cent in 2005-06. Unemployment rate forecast at 5.5 per cent in 2005-06 dropping to 5.25 per cent until 2010.

Finance

• Net debt to increase from $2 billion in June 2006 to $7.1 billion in June 2010.
• Operating expenses projected to rise by 4.5 per cent in 2006-07 to $32.12 billion. Operating revenue to increase by four per cent in 2006-07 to $32.44 billion.
• Record infrastructure funding of $4.9 billion, with $12.6 billion to be spent over the next four years.

Business and investment

• $167 million over four years in further land tax reform, capping increases to land tax liabilities for a further year, reducing the middle rates by 20 per cent, cutting the top rate to three per cent in 2006-07 and eliminating indexation.
• A further 10 per cent cut in WorkCover premiums, with an estimated saving for businesses of $680 million over the next four years.
• $42 million for new measures to cut red tape for businesses and not-for-profit organisations by 15 per cent in the next three years.

Transport

• $3.3 billion for road, rail and public transport improvements, with the majority of spending allocated to arterial roads and freeways.

Police, justice and emergency services

• $109 million to fight organised crime and terrorism, and a further $59 million to replace Victoria Police's LEAP database.

Education

• $448 million to replace and upgrade schools and TAFES.
• $300 one-off payment to every child starting preparatory school or year 7.
• $500 'trades bonus' to first year apprentices to help combat high drop-out rate of first year apprentices, at a cost of $36 million over four years.

Health

• $1.3 billion for health, aged care and community services[State budget at a glance], The Age, 30 May 2006

.

Several commentators noted that the budget was targeted towards the election and voters hip pockets at the expense of a longer-term investment in policy goals. The $300 payment to parents for children in prep and year 7 was criticised by some as a vote-buying tactic similar to the Liberal Federal Government’s baby bonus. Bracks and Brumby both stumbled while attempting to explain details about how the payment would be applied for and allocated to parents. Baillieu described the payment as a bribe.

Land tax cuts were seen as a move by Labor to prevent a pre-election backlash over politically sensitive property taxes. Baillieu countered this with a promise of significant stamp duty relief under a Liberal government.

The ongoing Government reliance on gaming revenue and the conflict between good policy and political self-interest was also highlighted, with poker machines contributing two-thirds of the state's forecast revenue of $1.5 billion next year, while only for $15 million is allocated to problem gambling [Money in the pocket, but where is the vision?], The Age, 1 June 2006 . Opposition Shadow Treasurer Robert Clark criticised the increase in debt financing as "a return to the Cain-Kirner years", highlighting that the Government's failure to cut stamp duty or extend the $3000 first-home-owners' bonus meant those in the property market would suffer most['A return to Kirner and Cain years'], The Age, 31 May 2006 .

The Snowy River privatisation collapses with Government backflips

The planned privatisation and sale of the Snowy River Hydro scheme by the Victorian, NSW and Federal governments was strongly criticised, amid concerns that the environmental flows to both the Snowy and Murray rivers would be compromised[Greens from Victoria and NSW call on state governments to rethink Snowy Hydro scheme sale], Victorian Greens Media Release, 15 February 2006 . The campaign against the privatisation gathered considerable momentum in rural areas of both Victoria and New South Wales, prompting major unease on the Federal Government's backbench. Prime Minister John Howard's announcement of the Federal Government's withdrawal from the planned sale was rapidly followed by similar announcements from the Iemma Government in New South Wales and the Bracks Government in Victoria. Howard stated "The decision to sell has created a lot of unhappiness in the Australian community".

Senator Bob Brown stated "It's an absolute victory for people power and its an absolute victory for the Greens in the Parliament as the real opposition. It makes me feel great to be a politician . . . it's a real win for democracy. In this age of two parties looking so similar to each other, people have got the alternatives, the Greens and the independents, to stand by them, when things go wrong".

Craig Ingram, independent member for Gippsland East and one of the leading campaigners against the sale, also welcomed the decision stating "It really justifies what I've been saying and what the community have been saying and that groundswell of opposition to what the governments have been doing without any public support, without any justification, without any mandate"[Greens hail Snowy backflip], The Age, 2 June 2006 . John Brumby's budget had allocated the estimated $600m sale proceeds for Victoria to schools. The failed sale created fears that many schools would miss out on essential building upgrades. [Snowy u-turn hits school upgrades], The Age, 2 June 2006 . In response, the Government stated that the initial $150 million schools' money committed in this year's budget was not from the Snowy proceeds, and will be spent as planned. Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu stated that the Government should not have promised money it did not have.

Bracks tries to resolve Labor's factional tensions, the rank and file revolts

Factional brawls have been disrupting Labor's preparation for the campaign, with "rogue elements" from both the Left and Right factions attacking each others' parliamentary candidates. Steve Bracks attempted to contain the situation by supporting two threatened nominees, the Right's George Seitz and the Left's Khalil Eideh, despite speculation they could be disendorsed prior to the election. However, the 90-member Broadmeadows ALP branch announced it will "go on strike come election time" by not conducting fundraising, letter boxing or manning the polling booths. The branch drew attention to candidates preselected for Parliament by "underhanded factional backroom deals", including AWU secretary Bill Shorten, the member for Gorton, Brendan O'Connor, Right faction leader Fiona Richardson, Khalil Eideh, and millionaire Evan Thornley, complaining that "the party has lost its integrity". Steve Bracks dismissed these concerns as being part of the "backwash" of the preselection process[Bracks tries to broker factional peace], The Age, 10 June 2006 .

The Greens launch their campaign on the steps of Parliament

Greens National leader Senator Bob Brown launched the Victorian Greens campaign on the steps of Parliament, stating that "changes to the state's Upper House give Victorians their best chance yet to elect Greens candidates to parliament" and that "Victoria's public transport, schools, hospitals and power generation need urgent attention and sustainable long term plans. The Greens in Victoria's parliament will work to make trains, trams and buses work for all Victorians, turn the schools' neglect around, better resource hospitals and reduce our energy dependence on dirty brown coal." All the Greens eight lead candidates for the Upper House were present. Greg Barber, Northern Metropolitan Region candidate stated ""We're on our way in. Today we are on the steps of Parliament House, but with the support of voters in our regions, we will be working for all Victorians from the inside after November 25th"[The Victorian Greens are on track for seats in state parliament], Media Release, 8 June 2006 .

Liberal state director Julian Sheezel launched a pre-election assault on the Greens, stating that "their 'mad' policies pose a threat to the social and economic fabric of Victoria” and urging voters not fall for the image of the Greens as “a cuddly, well-meaning political party who are concerned about the environment". Greg Barber responded, stating "most of our policies are pretty common sense - but clearly common sense ain't going to be that common in the next six months". Barber said the Greens had been continuously represented in Australian parliaments for about 25 years, their record on legislative reform was clear, and "there won't be any surprises" if they win balance of power in VictoriaGreens feel Liberals' wrath, The Age, 7 June 2006 .

Bracks wrong footed when his strategist's private diary is revealed

On Thursday 15 June 2006, Liberal Front bencher Andrew McIntosh ambushed Premier Steve Bracks and Attorney-General Rob Hulls during question time in Parliament. McIntosh had possession of the private diary of the Premier's political strategist Tom Cargill, which contained notes including the phrase "Index search on Mrs Baillieu, kids etc" and "email firm names to Julie Ligeti".

Before revealing he had the diary, McIntosh asked Bracks whether he could guarantee "that ministers and their staff are not abusing their power by collating personal information about the families of members of Parliament". Bracks dismissed the idea as "ridiculous".

McIntosh then asked Hulls whether his chief of staff, Julie Ligeti, was collating personal information on Mr Baillieu's wife and children. Hulls responded "I have not the slightest idea what the shadow attorney-general is talking about".

The Liberals then released the extracts from Cargill’s diary that appeared to contradict the statements made by both Bracks and Hulls. Bracks asserted that his Government did not have a "dirt unit" and was not out to dig up personal information about Mr Baillieu or his family, but went on to say that it was legitimate and unexceptional for political parties to investigate what was on the public record about the pecuniary interests of MPs and their families to ensure that MPs' private interests did not conflict with their public responsibilities [How Bracks insiders sullied the image of Saint Steve], The Age, 17 June 2006 .

The "Cargill diary incident" was partly countered by information coming to light about a secret 60-page dossier written by Edmund Carew, a former adviser to Ted Baillieu and Robert Doyle, that contains attack lines for the party to use against former Labor state secretary Jenny Beacham. Carew has been accused of compiling the dossier as a "dirt file" with personal information on the family members and business interests of Beachem [Liberals 'dug dirt on Labor woman'], The Age, 21 June 2006 . Paul Austin writing in The Age then pointed out that both the Labor and Liberal parties were engaging in political point-scoring over "dirt files" and "dirty politics", given that Register of Interests Act of 1978 requires state MPs to declare any substantial pecuniary or other interest held by them or by any member of their family (including their spouse and children) that may give rise to a conflict between an MP's private interest and their public duty [Bracks reveals politician beneath those smiles], The Age, 23 June 2006 .

Factional fighting besets the Liberals and June polls cause them concern

A battle between the "Peter Costello/Michael Kroger" and the "Jeff Kennett/Ted Baillieu" factions within the Liberal party played out during preselection for the seat of Warrandyte that will be vacated by Phil Honeywood. The dominance of the Costello/Kroger group was confirmed by the prelection of their candidate, money markets advisor Ryan Smith, beating Baillieu's preferred candidate, architect and Melbourne City Councillor Peter Clarke, by one vote[Another party shooting at its own foot], The Age, 30 June 2006 . After improved poll results in May, negative poll results in late June sent another shockwave through the Liberals.

Further internal strife associated with candidate preselection led to reports that the Victorian Liberal Party appeared to be "imploding" in the lead-up to the election. Victorian Party Director Julian Sheezel was informed that "factionally driven manipulation of the preselection of candidates was a betrayal of the party's values and was damaging its chances of defeating the Labor Government"[Internal strife hampers Liberals], The Age, 15 July 2006 .

References

See also

• Victorian Legislative Assembly elections, 2006
• 2006 Victorian election marginal seats
• Candidates of the Victorian legislative election, 2006

Politics of Victoria

Government: Parliament (Legislative Assembly, Legislative Council) - Monarchy - Governor

Courts: High Court of Australia - Supreme Court - County Court - Magistrates Court - VCAT

Victorian Legislative Elections: 1992 - 1996 - 1999 - 2002 - 2006

 

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